Greenpeace owns the CO2 Coalition and the Heartland Institute.

4 Comments

  1. It is unfortunate that so many really good scientists have made this mistake. I hope you are wrong about the results of the coming lawsuits and agree that your proposed defense is far better. Before I heard of Salby or you I was skeptical of our emissions controlling the concentration.
    A question I asked over 10 years ago and haven’t got an acceptable answer yet. We are told the increase in atmosphere CO2 is entirely anthropogenic because it is less than our emissions. I point out the atmospheric growth rate doesn’t seem to be dependent on the emissions rate. So I ask my question:
    What is the mechanism that controls the absorption of our variable rate emissions so just enough of this years emissions are left to maintain the linear atmospheric growth rate?

    According to https://climatechangetracker.org/co2/human-induced-yearly-co2-emissions our emissions have flattened out for about 10 years. According to http://www.climate4you.com/ atmospheric concentration has grown linearly.

    Until that question can be answered I think it is reasonable to accept Salby’s explanation that the anthropogenic emissions are such a small part of the flux they are lost in the noise of the measurements. That is, I think, compatible with your more detailed work.

    1. Dear DMA,
      Let’s ask a slightly different question.
      Rather than ask for the mechanism that absorbs our emissions, let’s ask if we can write a physics equation that describes the absorption of our emissions. This is the equation for outflow.
      Outflow = Level / e-time
      Then we derive the balance level where outflow equals inflow. This changes this equation to:
      Inflow = Balance Level / e-time
      or
      Balance Level = Inflow * e-time
      Therefore, the inflow of human CO2 into the atmosphere sets a balance level. If inflow is constant, the level will move to the balance level where outflow equals inflow, and then the level will remain constant. This describes how IPCC’s level of natural CO2 can remain constant at 280 ppm.
      A first-order approximation to calculating the human CO2 balance level is:
      Human balance level = Natural balance level * (human inflow / natural inflow)
      where the e-times cancel out because they are identical.
      Inserting numbers, we get:
      Human balance level = 280 ppm * ( 3 / 97) = 8.7 ppm
      CEP tells us that human and natural carbon and CO2 follow the same rules.
      because the latest data show human inflow is 3% and natural inflow is 97%

  2. For those of us without your background, this may be an ignorant suggestion but would it be possible to produce an experiment with a large enclosed container that had 4 entrances placing CO2 into the container at the rate for each of the input sources and an outflow for the CO2 based on the estimated CO2 half life with the human input percent for each input source labelled using C14 as the marker for Human CO2? Then show that after X # of days the ratio of human CO2 to other sources remains steady. Thus, showing its half life is exactly the same as natural CO2. I am assuming that C14 would not change the rate of exit. I do not know if this is true.
    I think models that can be visualized by the average person are useful in persuasion like your buckets discussion. But doing it with the actual gases could be helpful. The experiment is static of course and could be attacked as not representative of the real world and climate dynamics but it could show that all CO2 is treated the same as far as a constant input and output. Not my field of study as my degrees are in chemistry and pharmacy. Thanks for you response.
    Regards
    Bob

    1. Dear Bob,

      I do not understand your proposed experiment, but here are some comments anyway:

      If we put human and natural CO2 in the same container, we can’t measure their relative total masses because we can’t measure whether a CO2 is human or natural.

      But, suppose we have two identical tanks and two chambers. We make one chamber mostly natural CO2 by growing trees, and the other chamber mostly human CO2 by burning candles or gasoline.

      Then we could pump human CO2 into one tank and natural CO2 into the other. We set the pressure in each tank to the same value. Then, we have a preinstalled small valve that we can open on each tank. We open the two valves simultaneously and record the pressure in each tank as a function of time.

      Since human and natural CO2 are identical, I would expect the pressure in each tank to decrease at exactly the same rate.

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