[Updated 8/26/2020 – Ed]
On July 4, 2019, the International Journal of Atmospheric and Ocean Sciences published my scientific paper, “Human CO2 Emissions have little Effect on Atmospheric CO2.“
Because it is easy to read even for non-scientists, I encourage you to download the free PDF of my paper here.
My paper’s 9000 plus words and 17 figures explain much more about why human CO2 does not change climate than I can explain in this short article. If you do not understand the few math equations in my paper, just read the English and you will still understand my paper.
My paper supports Hermann Harde’s paper, published a few weeks before my paper, as well as the excellent book and videos by Murry Salby, and the papers from other authors who have worked to explain this core message:
Human CO2 makes an insignificant increase in the natural level of atmospheric CO2 and, therefore, nature, not human CO2, is responsible for changing the climate.
You can download Harde’s paper here:
The alarmist climate theory fails the scientific method.
Climate alarmists claim human CO2 emissions cause dangerous climate change. They believe a warmer planet causes bad things to happen. Therefore, they say, we must severely reduce human CO2 emissions to save the planet. They say it is a “climate emergency.”
Their problem is they have not checked the science. Science shows there is no reason to restrict our CO2 emissions.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate alarmist theory is wrong because it assumes nature treats human CO2 differently than it treats natural CO2. This is impossible because human and natural CO2 molecules are identical.
In contrast, a simple physics model (that should be taught in all schools and universities – but isn’t) shows how both natural and human CO2 flow through the atmosphere. This physics model exactly replicates the carbon-14 data.
How CO2 flows through the atmosphere.
IPCC claims and much of the public believes, human emissions “add” CO2 to the atmosphere as garbage adds to a garbage dump. The truth is just the opposite.
Natural and human CO2 “flow through” the atmosphere. As CO2 flows through the atmosphere, it raises the level of atmospheric CO2 just enough so, from the perspective of the atmosphere, CO2 outflow equals CO2 inflow. Nature balances CO2 in the atmosphere when it sets outflow equal to inflow.
An analogy is how water in a river flows into a lake and then flows out over a dam. If the river inflow increases, the lake level increases until outflow over the dam equals inflow from the river. Thereafter, the water level remains constant so long as inflow remains constant. The river does not “add” water to the lake. Water “flows through” the lake and when outflow equals inflow, the level is constant.
Similarly, human and natural CO2 flow through the atmosphere. The inflow creates a balance level that remains constant so long as inflow remains constant.
How we know that human CO2 is insignificant to atmospheric CO2.
The physics model is the only valid model of how CO2 flows through the atmosphere. Therefore, we must look at the consequences of the physics model.
The physics model shows the ratio of human to natural CO2 in the inflow sets the ratio of human to natural CO2 in the atmosphere. The ratios are the same. This conclusion is not only a physics result, but it is also an intuitive result.
Since the ratio of human to natural CO2 in the inflow is less than 5 percent, then the ratio in the atmosphere is also less than 5 percent. Therefore, of the 410 ppm of CO2 in the atmosphere today, human CO2 supports less than 20 ppm, and natural CO2 supports more than 390 ppm.
[Note 8/26/2020: my Preprint #3 applies the Physics model to the carbon cycle. These full carbon-cycle calculations show the human addition as of 2020 to be about 33 ppm. – Ed]
This proves natural CO2 inflow has increased since 1750 and now is responsible for about 390 ppm of the CO2 in the atmosphere. This contrasts with the IPCC invalid claim that human CO2 caused all the increase in atmospheric CO2 above 280 ppm or about 133 ppm.
Therefore, nature, not human CO2, caused most of the observed increase in atmospheric CO2. If all human CO2 emissions were stopped, and nature remained constant, then the level of CO2 in the atmosphere would decrease but never go below 392 ppm.
All attempts to legislate the reduction of human CO2 emissions in order to save the planet are delusions caused by the inability or refusal to understand science.
A conflict in the climate “skeptics” community.
Real scientists in the climate skeptic community explain why human CO2 is not the dominant cause of the rise in atmospheric CO2. But some in the skeptic community still argue that human CO2 caused all the CO2 increase above 280 ppm and therefore “human CO2 saved the planet by providing more CO2 for plants.”
To be clear, I agree that more CO2 is good for plant growth. But that statement is unrelated to how much human CO2 caused atmospheric CO2 to increase since 1750.
While it is valid to argue that more CO2 is good for plant growth, to argue that human CO2 caused all the CO2 increase above 280 ppm is not only incorrect but it gives strong political support to the alarmists.
To win the political war decisively, we must argue that IPCC’s core theory is false. This is a solid scientific argument that will win the political war.
To use the “CO2 is good” argument in politics is self defeating because, unless qualified, it implies IPCC’s invalid core theory is true. Politically, it is the equivalent of shooting ourselves in the foot.
The fact is we must thank Mother Nature, not human CO2, for most of the increase in atmospheric CO2.