The Central Role Of The Sun In Climate Change

by Harrison Schmitt

Policy makers at the head of government in the United States and elsewhere apparently want to believe, and to have others believe, that human use of fossil fuels accelerates global warming.  They pursue this quest in order to impose ever greater and clearly unconstitutional control on the economy and personal liberty in the name of a hypothetically omnipotent government.  There exists no true concern by the President or Congressional Leadership about the true effects of climate change – only a poorly concealed, ideologically driven attempt to use conjured up threats of catastrophic consequences as a lever to gain authoritarian control of society.

There has been an absolute natural increase in global surface temperature of half a degree Centigrade per 100 years (0.9 degrees Fahrenheit) over the last three and a half centuries.[i]

Observational climate data and objective interpretations of those data strongly indicate that nature, not human activity, exerts the primary influence on this current long term warming and on all global climate variations.  Human influence through use of fossil fuels has been and remains minor if even detectable.[ii]

Claims to the contrary only find support in highly questionable climate models that fail repeatedly against the reality of nature. What, then, stimulates historically and geologically observed, sometimes slow and sometimes radical, changes in climate?

The primary alternative hypothesis to human-caused global warming is natural climate change driven by the Sun.[iii]

Unfortunately, the “human-caused global warming” or “carbon dioxide forcing” hypothesis has become embedded in the minds of otherwise strong teams of observational scientists and their publication outlets.  They cannot entertain any other alternative to enhance and amplify variations in the natural heating of the Earth by the Sun[iv] – nor can they prove their own hypothesis of human-caused global warming.[v]

As many scientists have documented, the position and orientation of the Earth in its orbit around the sun, and the Sun’s variable influence and activity, determine weather and climate.[vi]

Seasons vary because of changing solar energy input in annual response to the varying orientation of Earth’s Northern and Southern Hemispheres.  Indeed, the Earth’s 23-degree inclination to the rays from the Sun and its annual orbit around that star guarantee large seasonal changes away from the equator.  Further, variations in solar radiation received by the Earth correlate with short-term variations in Earth’s weather, based on the slow movement of loops called “Rossby waves”[vii] in atmospheric jet streams.[viii]

Observations by astronomers over the centuries, as well as studies of tree rings,[ix] stalagmite layers,[x] and other pre-historic and geological records[xi], have defined an 11-year sunspot cycle superposed on a number of longer climate cycles[xii].

Much modern research documents that the sunspot cycle also correlates with variations in stratospheric winds[xiii] and ozone production,[xiv] cosmic ray flux,[xv] ionosphere-troposphere interactions,[xvi] and the global electrical circuit that exists between the ionosphere and the Earth’s surface[xvii].

Correlations of records of seasonal changes, solar activity cycles, and local and regional rainfall oscillations all confirm that in some way radiation emanating from the Sun drives changes in weather and climate.[xviii]

Solar interplanetary magnetic fields, whose polarity varies every 22 years or twice the sunspot cycle, may play an additional role as their strength varies directly with increases and decreases in numbers of sunspots.[xix]

As a further natural demonstration of the importance of the Sun in determining climate variation, the well-documented solar shielding effects of atmospheric ash and aerosols from volcanic eruptions document the tie between solar irradiance and at least short-term climate swings.  Particularly illustrative have been eruptions such as Huaynaputina (1600)[xx], Tambora (1815)[xxi], Krakatoa (1883)[xxii], and Pinatubo (1991)[xxiii]

More broadly, geological and planetological observations show that major perturbations in climate relate to the position and orientation of the Earth in its orbit around the Sun.  For example, as Serbian mathematician Milutin Milankovitch pointed out in 1941,[xxiv] as have many others since,[xxv] initiation of the major ice ages on Earth correlate with a 23,000-year precession cycle, a 41,000-year obliquity cycle, and a 100,000-year eccentricity cycle in the position of the Earth relative to the Sun.

Cyclic variations measured in oxygen isotope ratios that correlate with the growth of ice sheets and biogeochemical responses closely reflect the 23,000-year precession cycle.[xxvi]

Also, a half-precession cycle appears to be related to the dynamics of the East African Equatorial monsoon[xxvii].

In addition, the 41,000-year obliquity cycle shows strongly in North American marine depositional records.[xxviii]

Climate cycles related to internal solar activity are superposed on long-term orbital cycles.  For example, the Medieval Warm Period (800-1300) and the Little Ice Age (1400-1900) correlate, respectively, with very active and very passive periods of recorded sunspot activity.[xxix]

As a fairly recent example of solar influence on climate, the Little Ice Age occurred during a 500-year long sequence of three deep reductions in sunspot frequency.[xxx]

The coldest temperatures came during the last of these minima, a 70-year period of exceptionally few sunspots (the Maunder Minimum).[xxxi]

The Medieval Warm Period, (when the Vikings colonized Greenland, glaciers retreated, and farmers could at least survive)[xxxii] also correlates to repeated multi-century long, high sunspot frequency.[xxxiii]

Since the end of the early 1900s, peak values in sunspot activity rose steadily until 1960, leveling off at higher than normal values until apparently starting to fall about 2000.[xxxiv]

The 11-year sunspot cycle repetitions are superposed on a number of long-term cycles of past highs and lows in solar activity.  For example, the Gleissberg cycle has imprecisely defined periods of 90±30 years in length.[xxxv]

More energetic sunspot activity in the Gleissberg cycle may correlate with temporary decades of warming, such as in the 1930s and 1990s with the reverse being true in the 1810s and 1910s.  Analyses of tree rings, lake levels, cave deposits, tree ring variations in cosmic ray-produced isotopes (¹⁴C and ¹⁰Be)[xxxvi], and oxygen isotope ratios record what appear to be other long period solar cycles, specifically, 2400, 1500 years, 200, as well as the Gleissberg cycle[xxxvii].

Many advocates of human-caused global warming agree that solar cycles show correlations with regional climate variations[xxxviii]; but, absent a proven amplification mechanism to enhance small solar energy (irradiance) variations, they reject nature in favor of fossil fuel burning.

These reviews all document broadly accepted relationships of weather and climate with many different repetition cycles in solar activity[xxxix], ranging from significant but random solar flares affecting jet stream tracks,[xl] to the 11-year sunspot cycle,[xli] to the long-term Milankovitch orbital repetitions discussed above.

Specifically with respect to the last 120 years, the correlation of measured solar energy input variations with global surface temperature and sea surface temperature is very strong.[xlii]

The statistical correlation of solar irradiance with air temperature has been about 79%.[xliii]

In contrast, during the last 50 years, the correlation of measured carbon dioxide increases with global surface temperature has been only about 22%.  This directly contradicts the assumption that carbon dioxide has had a large influence on climate in the last 50 years.[xliv]

Since the end of the last Ice Age 10,000 years ago, the increase in total energy from the Sun has been about 0.6 watts per square meter,[xlv] an increase of less than 0.05% over an average total of about 1367 watts per square meter (about 14, 100 watt light bulbs per square yard).

On shorter time scales, total variations reach about 3 watts per square meter, or 0.22% from the average.[xlvi]

Considering the actual amount of possible atmospheric heating (30% of incoming solar energy is reflected to space), this variation results in a third to a half a degree Centigrade (0.6 to 0.9 degree Fahrenheit) global temperature change over seven years, that is, a half solar cycle.[xlvii]

Various natural mechanisms for visible, infrared, and UV light reflection, adsorption, emission, and water vapor feedback determine the net solar heating effect on the Earth.[xlviii]

Global atmospheric circulation moderates the short-term solar energy inputs, particularly upward convection of oceanic heat and water vapor in the large scale equatorial Hadley Cells that span latitudes from 30ºS to 30ºN .[xlix]

Ocean circulation overall moderates the long-term transfer of solar energy around the globe.[l]

Evidence for the existence, if not the nature, of a means for amplifying solar energy-solar magnetic field interactions with Earth comes from the oceans.  Determination of the total contribution of the oceans to heating of the atmosphere, using three independent observational measures of oceanic heat flux, shows that the oceans’ heat contribution to be five to seven times larger than variations in total solar energy input.[li]

Additional support that an amplification mechanism exists comes from recent observational data on variations in stratospheric water vapor concentrations over three decades.  These data suggest that decreases in water vapor have contributed to amplified sea surface cooling since 2000 while increases between 1980 and 2000 accented surface warming.[lii]

This relationship may correspond with stratospheric cooling and lower water retention due to lower than average solar energy input since 2000.

Climate change driven by the Sun constitutes a strongly competitive, purely scientific hypothesis to the climate modeling-political hypothesis of human-caused global warming advocated by climate modelers and their acolytes in the science, media, and political establishments.  Solar influence ranges from significant but random solar flares affecting jet stream tracks[liii], to the 11-year sunspot cycle,[liv] to the 22-year magnetic cycle, up to the long-term Milankovitch orbital repetitions discussed above.

The current decade or longer period of cold winters in the northern United States and Europe coincide with a relatively prolonged reduction in sunspot activity below even the norm for a minimum in the 11-year cycle.[lv]

Actual observations show that climate varies in response to natural forces and that human burning of fossil fuels has had negligible effect over the last 100 years.[lvi]

Lets us hope that State and national policy makers taking office in 2011 and 2013 will understand the facts about natural climate change and the fictions about human influence on change before taking enormous constitutional and economic risks – and before liberty and incomes suffer further erosion.

*****

Harrison H. Schmitt is a former United States Senator from New Mexico as well as a geologist and former Apollo Astronaut.  He currently is an aerospace and private enterprise consultant and a member of the new Committee of Correspondence.

References:

[i] Natural temperature rise:

Akasofu, S., Heartland Conference on Climate Change #2, New York, March 9-10, 2009;

Roy Spencer, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #2, New York, March 9-10, 2009;

Michaels, P. J., 2010, Cap and trade regulation, legislation, and science, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #4, Chicago, May 17, 2010;

Carter, R.M., 2007, The myth of human-caused climate change, in Australasian Institute of Mining & Metallurgy, New Leaders Conference, Brisbane, May 2-3 2007, Conference Proceedings pp. 61-74. http://members.iinet.net.au/~glrmc/2007%2005-03%20AusIMM%20corrected.pdf

[ii] Human effect insignificant:

Segalstad, T. V., 2010, Geochemistry of CO2: the whereabouts of CO2 in Earth, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #4, Chicago, May 17, 2010;

Robinson, A. B., N. E. Robinson, W. Soon, 2007, Environmental effects of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide, http://www.jpands.org/vol12no3/robinson600.pdf.

[iii] Role of Sun in Climate

van Geel, B., et al, 1999, The role of solar forcing upon climate change, Quaternary Science Reviews, 18, pp. 331-338;

Landscheidt, T., ~2004, Solar Activity: A dominant Factor in Climate Dynamics, Schroeter Institute of Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Nova Scotia, Canada http://www.john-daly.com/solar/solar.htm.

[iv] Role of Sun ignored

Herbert, T. D., et al, 2010, Tropical ocean temperature over the past 3.5 million years, Science, 328, pp. 15-30-1534;

Martínez-Garcia, A., et al, 2010, Subpolar link to the emergence of the modern equatorial Pacific Cold Tongue, Science, 328, pp, 1550-1553;

Denton, G. H., et al, 2010, The last glacial termination, Science, 328, pp. 1652-1656;

Tripati, A. K., C. D. Roberts, and R. A. Eagle, Coupling of CO2 and ice sheet stability over major climate transitions of the last 20 million years, Science, 324, pp. 1394-1397.

[v] Human caused not proved

Evans, D., 2009, The hotspot is missing, Heartland Climate Conference #2, New York, March 9, 2009;

Monckton, C., 2010, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #4, Chicago, May 17, 2010;

Singer, S. F., 2010, Climate gate: “hide the decline”, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #4, Chicago, May 17, 2010;

Mckitrick, R., 2010, Climate models vs. data: an updated comparison, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #4, Chicago, May 17, 2010;

Happer, William., 2009, Statement before the U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, February 25;

Dyson, Freeman., 2009, As reported by N. Dawidoff, New York Times Magazine, March 29.

[vi] Earth orbit effect

Milankovitch, M. 1941, Kanon der Erdbestrahlung und seine Andwendung auf das Eiszeitenproblem, Royal Serbian Academy, Belgrade;

Kukla, G., 2010, Misunderstood global warming, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #4, Chicago, May 17, 2010;

Huyber, P., 2009, Antarctica’s orbital beat, Science, 325, pp. 1085-1086;

Ruddiman, W. F., 2004, The role of greenhouse gases in orbital-scale climatic changes, EOS,85, 1, pp.1 and 6-7;

Hays, J. S, et al, 1976, Variations in the earth’s orbit: Pacemaker of the ice ages, Science, 194, pp. 1121-1132;

Ruddiman, W. F., 2003, Orbial insolation, ice volume, and greenhouse gases, Quaternary Science Review, 22, pp. 1597-1629;

Nash,T. 2009, et al., 2009, Nature, 458, pp. 322-328;

Soon, W., 2010, The Sun, the Milky Way, and the CO2 Monster, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #4, Chicago, May 17, 2010

[vii] Solar effect on general circulation

Dickinson, R. E., 1978, Rossby waves – long-period oscillations of oceans and atmospheres, Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics, Vol. 10, pp. 159-195;

Lindzen, R. S.,, D. M. Straus, and B. Katz, 1984, An observational study of large-scale atmospheric Rossby waves during FGGE, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 41, pp. 1320-1335.

[viii] Solar effect on jet streams

Hodell, D.A., et al, 2001, Solar forcing of drought frequency in the Maya lowlands, Science, 292, pp. 1367-1370;

Bond, G., et al, 2001, Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene, Science, 294, pp. 2130-2135;

Shindell, D.T., et al, 2001, Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum, Science, 294, pp. 2149-2155;

Bjorck, S., et al, 2001, High-resolution analyses of an early Holocene climate event may imply decreased solar forcing as an important climate trigger, Geology, 29, 12, pp. 1107-1110;

Pang, K.D., and K.K. Yau, 2002, Ancient observations link changes in sun’s brightness and Earth’s climate, EOS, 43, pp. 481, 487, 489-490;

Toomre, J., 2002, Order amidst turbulence, Science, 296, pp. 64-65;

Goldberg, F., 2009, Do the planets and the sun control the climate and the CO2 in the atmosphere?, 2^nd Annual Heartland Institute Conference on Climate Change, New York, March 8-9.

[ix] Tree ring data

Luckman, B. H., 2010, Geoscience of climate and Energy 6. Tree rings as temperature proxies, Geoscience Canada, 37, 1, pp. 38-42;

Frittz, H. C., 1976, Reconstructing large-scale climatic paterns from tree-ring data, University of Arizona Press, 286p.

[x] Stalagmite data

Drysdale, R. N., et al, 2007, Stalagmite evidence for the precise timing of North Atlantic cold events during the early last glacial, Geology, 35, PP. 77-80;

Zhang, P., et al, 2008, A test of climate, sun, and culture relationships from an 1810-year Chinese cave record, Science, 322, pp. 940-942;

Drysdale, R. N., 2009, Evidence for obliquity forcing of glacial termination II, Science, 325, pp. 1527-1531.

[xi] Geologic data

US Geological Survey, 2000, The Sun and climate, USGS Fact Sheet PS-095-00, August;

Pap, J.M, 2004, Solar variability and its effects on climate, interview by J. Lifland in EOS, 85,30, p. 28;

Lean, J., 2005, Living with a variable sun, Physics Today, June, pp. 35-37;

Meehl, G. A., et al, 2009, Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11-year solar cycle forcing, Science, 325, pp. 1114-1118;

Joe DAleo, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #2, New York, March 9-10, 2009;

Hodges, R, and J. Eisner, 2010, Evidence linking solar variability with USA hurricanes, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting.

[xii] Sunspot cycle effect on climate cycle

Friis-Christensen, E., and K. Lassen, 1991, length of the solar cycle: An indicator of solar activity closely associated with climate, Science, 254, pp. 698-700;

Fröhlich, C., and J. Lean, 1998, The sun’s total irradiance: Cycles, trends and related climate change uncertainties since 1976, Geophysical Research Letters, 25, pp. 4377-4380.

[xiii] Sunspot cycle effect on stratospheric winds

Labitzke, K., 1987, Sunspots, the QBO, and the stratospheric temperature in the north polar region.- Geophysical Research Letters, 14, pp. 535-537;

Labitzke, K. and van Loon, H., 1988, Associations between the 11-year solar cycle, the QBO and the atmosphere, Journal Atmospheric and Terrestrial Physics, 50, pp. 197-206;

Labitzke, K., 2005, On the Solar Cycle-QBO-Relationship: A Summary, J.A.S.-T.P., Special Issue, 67, pp. 45-54;

Haigh, J. D., 1996, The impact of solar variability on climate, Science, 272, pp. 981-984;

Shindell, D., et al, 1999, Solar cycle variability, ozone, and climate, Science, 284, pp. 305-308.

[xiv] Sunspot cycle effect on ozone

McCormack, J. P., et al, 2007, Solar-QBO interaction and its impact on stratospheric ozone in a zonally averaged photochemical transport model of the middle atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research – Atmospheres, August 28, 112, D16109, doi:10.1029/2006JD008369).

[xv] Sunspot cycle effect on cosmic rays

Svensmark, H., 2007, Cosmoclimatology: A new theory emerges, Astronomy & Geophysics, Blackwell Publishing, 48 (1), pp. 18–24.; Ney, E. P., 1959, Cosmic radiation and the weather, Nature, 183, pp. 451-452;

Foukal, P. C., et al, 2006, variations in solar luminosity and their effect on Earth’s climate, Nature, 443, pp. 161-166;

Ram, M, M. R. Tolz, and B. A. Tinsley, 2009, The terrestrial cosmic ray flux: Its importance for climate, EOS, 90, 44, pp. 397-398;

Carslaw, K., 2009, Cosmic rays, clouds and climate, Nature, 460, pp. 332-333;

Pierce, J. R., and P. J. Adams, 2009, Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2009GL037946;

Shaviv, N.J., 2005, On climate response to changes in the cosmic ray flux and radiative budget, Journal of Geophysical Research, 110, 10.1029/2004JA010866;

Tinsley, B.A.,1994, Solar wind mechanism suggested for weather and climate change, Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 75, 32, p. 369;

Goldberg, F., 2009, Do the planets and the sun control the climate and the CO2 in the atmosphere?, 2^nd Annual Heartland Institute Conference on Climate Change, New York, March 8-9.

[xvi] Sunspot cycle effect on ionosphere-troposphere interactions

Immel T.J., and S.B. Meade, 2009, Evidence of tropospheric effects on the Ionosphere, EOS, 90, 9, pp. 69-70.

[xvii] Sunspot cycle effect on global electric circuit

Tinsley, B.A., 1997, Do effects of global atmospheric electricity on clouds cause climate changes?, EOS, 78, 33, pp. 341, 344, 349;

Bering, E., and J. Benbrook, 1998, The global electric circuit, Physics Today, October, pp. 24-30.

[xviii] Solar radiation drives weather and climate

Arthur Robinson, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #2, New York, March 9-10, 2009:

Dennis Avery, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #2, New York, March 9-10, 2009;

Landscheidt, T., ~2004. Solar Activity: A dominant Factor in Climate Dynamics, Schroeter Institute of Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Nova Scotia, Canada http://www.john-daly.com/solar/solar.htm.

[xix] Solar interplanetary magnetic fields related to sunspots

Willson, R. C. and H.S. Hudson, 1991, The Sun’s luminosity over a complete solar cycle, Nature, 351, pp. 42–4;

Svalgaard, L., and J. M. Wilcox, 1974, The spiral interplanetary magnetic field: a polarity and sunspot cycle variation, Science, 1974, 186, pp. 51-53;

[xx] Volcano Huaynaputina

Witze, A., 2008, The volcano that changed the world, Nature, doi:10.1038/news.2008.747;

Verosub, K.L. and J. Lippman, 2008, EOS, 89, pp. 141-142.

[xxi] Volcano Tambora

Oppenheimer, C., 2003, Climatic, environmental and human consequences of the largest known historic eruption: Tambora volcano (Indonesia) 1815. Progress in Physical Geography, 27, pp. 230–259.

[xxii] Volcano Krakatoa

Winchester, S., 2003, The Day the World Exploded: Krakatoa, Harper-Collins, New York, 416 p.

[xxiii] Volcano Pinatubo

McCormick, M. Patrick et al, 1995, Atmospheric effects of the Mt Pinatubo eruption”. Nature, pp. 399–404.

[xxiv] Milankovitch cycles

Milankovitch, M. 1941, Kanon der Erdbestrahlung und seine Andwendung auf das Eiszeitenproblem, Royal Serbian Academy, Belgrade;

Kukla, G., 2010, Misunderstood global warming, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #4, Chicago, May 17, 2010.

[xxv] Precession and obliquity cycles

Huyber, P., 2009, Antarctica’s orbital beat, Science, 325, pp. 1085-1086;

Ruddiman, W. F., 2004, The role of greenhouse gases in orbital-scale climatic changes, EOS,85, 1, pp.1 and 6-7;

Hays, J. S, et al, 1976, Variations in the earth’s orbit: Pacemaker of the ice ages, Science, 194, pp. 1121-1132;

Ruddiman, W. F., 2003, Orbial insolation, ice volume, and greenhouse gases, Quaternary Science Review, 22, pp. 1597-1629;

Nash,T. 2009, et al., 2009, Nature, 458, pp. 322-328.

[xxvi] Precession cycle effects

Severinghous, J. P., 2009, Oxygen-18 of O2 records the impact of abrupt climate change on the terrestrial biosphere, Science, 324, pp. 1431-1434.

[xxvii] Half-precession cycle effects

Verschuren, D., et al, 2009, Half-precessional dynamics of monsoon rainfall near the East African Equator, Nature, 462, pp. 637-641.

[xxviii] Obliquity cycle records

Drysdale, R. N., et al, 2009, Evidence for obliquity forcing of glacial Termination II, Science, 325, pp. 1527-1531.

[xxix] Sunspot effect on global temperatures

Easterbrook, D., 2010, The looming threat of global cooling, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #4, Chicago, May 17, 2010;

Polssar, P. J., Polissar, et al, 2006, Solar modulation of Little Ice Age climate in the tropical Andes, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[xxx] Sunspot Minima and Little Ice Age

Bard, E., et al, 2000, Solar irradiance during the last 1200 years based on cosmogenic nuclides, Tellus, 52B, pp. 985-992;

 

Lean, J. J. Beer, and R. Bradley, 1995, Reconstruction of solar irradiance since 1610: Implications for climate change, Geophysical Research Letters, 22, pp. 3195-3198

[xxxi] Sunspot minima and Maunder Minimum

Schröder, W., 2005, Case studies on the Spörer, Maunder, and Dalton minima, Beiträge zur Geschichte der Geophysik und Kosmischen Physik. 6. Potsdam: AKGGP, Science Edition;

Eddy J.A., 1976, The Maunder Minimum”, Science, 192, pp. 1189–1202.

[xxxii] Life during the Medieval Warm Period

Fagan, B, 2000. The Little Ice Age, Basic Books, pp-3-23.

[xxxiii] Sunspot maxima and Medieval Warm Period

Bard, E., et al, 2000, Solar irradiance during the last 1200 years based on cosmogenic nuclides, Tellus, 52B, pp. 985-992;

MacDonald, G.M. et al, 2008, Climate warming and 21^st-Century drought in Southwestern North America, EOS, 89, 9, p. 82;

US Geological Survery, 2000, The Sun and climate, USGS Fact Sheet PS-095-00, August.

[xxxiv] Last century sunspot values and weather

Solanki, S.K., et al, 2004, Unusual activity of the sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years, Nature, 431, pp. 1084-1087;

Ross, J., 2010, Solar Activity Lowest in Almost 100 Years, Implications for Climate Potentially Significant, http://www.sott.net/articles/show/181839.

[xxxv] Solar Gleissberg cycle

Sonett, C. P.; S. A. Finney,A. Berger, 1990, The Spectrum of Radiocarbon, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, A 330 (1615), pp. 413–26.

Mouradian, Z., 2001, Gleissberg cycle of solar activity, Proceedings of the Second Solar Cycle and Space Weather Euroconference, 24 – 29 September, H. Sawaya-Lacoste, editor, ESA SP-477, Noordwijk: ESA Publications Division, ISBN 92-9092-749-6, 2002, pp. 151 – 154;

Friis-Christensen, E., and K. Lassern, 1991, Science, 254, pp. 698-700;

Landscheidt, T., Solar Activity: A dominant Factor in Climate Dynamics, Schroeter Institute of Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Nova Scotia, Canada http://www.john-daly.com/solar/solar.htm.

[xxxvi] Solar cycles and temperature reconstructions

Stuiver, M. and G. W. Pearson, 1986, High-precision calibration of the radiocarbon time scale, A.D. 1950-500, Radiocarbon, 28, pp. 805-838;

Sonnett, C. P., and S. A., Finney, 1990, The spectrum of radiocarbon, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, 30A, pp. 413-426;

Damon, P. E., and C. P. Sonnett, 1991, Solar and terrestrial components of the atmospheric 14C variation spectrum, in C. P. Sonnett, et al, editors, The sun in time, University of Arizona Press, pp. 360-388.

[xxxvii] Longer solar cycles and climate

Grootes, and Stuiver, 1997, Oxygen 18/16 variability in Greenland snow and ice with 103- to 105-year time resolution, Journal of Geophysical Research, 102, 26455-26470;

Shanahan, T. M., et al, 2009, Atlantic forcing of persistent drought in West Africa, Science, 324, pp. 377-380;

Usoskin, I.G., et al, 2003, A millennium scale sunspot number reconstruction: Evidence for an unusually active sun since the 1940s, Physical Review Letters, 91, p. 211101-4;

Solanki, S.K., et al, 2004, Unusual activity of the sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years, Nature, 431, pp. 1084-1087;

Jones, P.D. and M.E. Mann, 2004, Climate over past millennia, Reviews in Geophysics, 42, RG2002;

Bard, E., et al, 2000, Solar irradiance during the last 1200 years based on cosmogenic nuclides, Tellus, 52B, pp. 985-992;

Braun, H, et al, 2005, Possible solar origin of the 1,470-year glacial climate cycle demonstrated in a coupled model, Nature 438, pp. 208–11;

US Geological Survery, 2000, The Sun and climate, USGS Fact Sheet PS-095-00, August.

[xxxviii] AGW believers acknowledge solar cycle correlations with climate

Solanki, S.K., et al, 2004, Unusual activity of the sun during recent decades compared to the previous 11,000 years, Nature, 431, pp. 1084-1087;

Pap, J.M, 2004, Solar variability and its effects on climate, interview by J. Lifland in EOS, 85,30, p. 28;

Lean, J., 2005, Living with a variable sun, Physics Today, June, pp. 35-37;

Meehl, G. A., et al, 2009, Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11-year solar cycle forcing, Science, 325, pp. 1114-1118.

[xxxix] Widely accepted relationships of solar cycles and climate

Dennis Avery, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #2, New York, March 9-10, 2009:

Arthur Robinson, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #2, New York, March 9-10, 2009;

Herrara, V., 2010, Wavelet analysis, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #4, Chicago, May 17, 2010;

Scafetta, N., 2010, Empirical evidence for a celestial origin of the climate oscillations and its implications, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, Elsevier, in press.

[xl] Solar flares and jet streams

Schmitt, H.H, Schmitt, H.A., and Schmitt, E. H., unpublished observations from 1943 to present.

[xli] Agreement on solar cycles

Joe DAleo, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #2, New York, March 9-10, 2009;

Hodges, R, and J. Eisner, 2010, Evidence linking solar variability with USA hurricanes, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting;

Ram, M., M. Stolz, and G. Koenig, 1997, Possible solar influences on the dust profile of the GISP2 ice core from central Greenland, Geophysical Research Letters, 22, pp. 171-182.

[xlii] Solar energy effects on surface temperatures

Spencer, R., 2010, Spencer on climate sensitivity and solar irradiance , in http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/06/05/;

Arthur Robinson, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #2, New York, March 9-10, 2009

[xliii] Strong correlation of solar irradiance and temperatures

Dennis Avery, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #2, New York, March 9-10, 2009

[xliv] Weak correlation of carbon dioxide and temperatures

Karoly, D. J., et al, 2003, Detection of a human influence on North American climate, Science, 302, pp. 1200-1203.

[xlv] Solar energy has increased in last 10,000 years

Rind, D., 2002, The sun’s role in climate variation, Science, 296, pp. 673-677.

[xlvi] Solar energy changes on shorter time scales

Foukal, P. C., et al, 2006, variations in solar luminosity and their effect on Earth’s climate, Nature, 443, pp. 161-166;

Meehl, G. A., et al, 2009, Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11-year solar cycle forcing, Science, 325, pp. 1114-1118.

[xlvii] Half solar cycle can add 0.5 C heating

Landscheidt, T., ~2004. Solar Activity: A dominant Factor in Climate Dynamics, Schroeter Institute of Research in Cycles of Solar Activity, Nova Scotia, Canada http://www.john-daly.com/solar/solar.htm.

[xlviii] Many feedbacks determine net solar heating

Kininmonth, W., 2010, Natural responses limiting anthropogenic climate forcing, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #4, Chicago, May 17, 2010.

[xlix] Global atmospheric circulation moderates short-term solar effects

Roederer, J. G., 1995, Solar variability effects on climate. In: In: B. Frenzel, Hsg.: Solar output and climate during the Holocene, Stuttgart-Jena-New York, Gustav Fischer Verlag, 3, p. 17;

van Geel, B., et al, 1999, The role of solar forcing upon climate change, Quaternary Science Reviews, 18, pp. 331-338;

Persson, A., 2006, Hadley’s Principle: Understanding and Misunderstanding the Trade Winds, History of Meteorology 3, pp. 17–42.

[l] Ocean circulation moderates long-term solar effects

Gray, W.M., 2009, Climate Change: Driven by the ocean not human activity, presented at the 2^nd Annual Heartland Institute Conference on Climate Change, New York, March 8-10;

Goldberg, F., 2009, Do the planets and the sun control the climate and the CO2 in the atmosphere?, 2^nd Annual Heartland Institute Conference on Climate Change, New York, March 8-9;

Yu, S-Y, S. M. Colman, et al, 2010, Freshwater outburst from Lake Superior as a trigger for the cold event 9300 years ago, Science, 328, pp. 1262-1266;

Bard, E., 2002, Climate shock: Abrupt changes over millennial time scales, Physics Today, December, pp. 32-38.

[li] Oceans amplify solar effects by five to seven times

Shaviv, N.J., 2009, Using the oceans as a calorimeter to quantify the solar radiative forcing, Heartland Climate Change Conference, March 8-9, New York.

[lii] Stratospheric water vapor amplifies ocean heating and cooling

Solomon, S. et al, 2010, Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming, Science, 327, pp. 1219-1223.

[liii] Solar flares affect jet streams

Schmitt, H.H, Schmitt, H.A., and Schmitt, E. H., unpublished observations from 1943 to present.

[liv] Sunspot cycle affects weather

Joe DAleo, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #2, New York, March 9-10, 2009; Hodges, R, and J. Eisner, 2010, Evidence linking solar variability with USA hurricanes, American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting.

[lv] Recent long period of low sunspot numbers links to colder weather

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/today.html.

[lvi] Observations show climate change is natural rather than human caused

Dennis Avery, Heartland Conference on Climate Change #2, New York, March 9-10, 2009;

Rahmstorf, S., 2002, Stochastic resonance in glacial climate, EOS, 83, 12, pp. 129, 135.