I project Donald Trump will get 1256 delegates

by Dr. Ed Berry

In the past week, Donald Trump’s poll numbers have climbed and Cruz has crashed. Here’s a national poll:

FoxNewsPollApr13

In the past week, Trump gained 4 points while Cruz lost 11 points, for a total of 15 points net gain over Cruz.

Here is a New York poll as of April 12:

PollNYApr12

 

Trump’s dominance in New York justifies raising our estimate of the delegates Trump will win in New York.

As before, we begin with RealClearPolitics count of delegates awarded data as of April 12.  Then we use Nelson Hultberg’s estimated delegate wins, except we will change his numbers for New York to new data.

Optimus polls released its county by county polls for New York on April 15. They project Trump will win 85 delegates, Cruz 1, and Kasich 9. This is significantly better than Hultberg projected. This suggests Trump will do better than Hultberg estimated in the remaining states. However, we will change only our numbers for New York.

If the GOP does not fraudulently reset the voting machines or outright steal delegates already awarded, then here is what the present data projects for the elections through April 26:

Delegates0426ProjectedNY

The blue shows the delegates won. The orange shows the delegates needed to get 1237.

Trump will have 959 delegates. He will need only 278 more or 49% of the remaining delegates to get 1237.

Cruz will have 599 delegates. He will need 638 delegates to get 1237 or 113% of the remaining delegates. Therefore, Cruz will be out of the race for 1237.

Let’s look at the full list of the states yet to vote. We showed the data in this list through April in the above chart. Here is the rest of the projected estimated delegates. We assume Cruz gets the delegates that Trump does not win. Maybe Kasich will get some of the votes we have assigned to Cruz.

DelegatesProj1256

In this scenario, Trump ends up with 1256 total delegates, or 19 above 1237. He is likely to get much more than 1256.

After April 26, Cruz may lose voters when they may realize Cruz can’t get 113 percent of the remaining votes. Trump has momentum now and this will increase after the April elections.

A good reason to vote for Trump rather than Kasich or Cruz is a clean win will let Trump choose the best VP without having to make a deal with someone.

Donald J Trump is going to win one for the Gipper.

2 thoughts on “I project Donald Trump will get 1256 delegates”

  1. Frank Trask,III ( De

    I am a Montana type who has spent 50 years in Australia. Your should know that even the conservative press portray Trump as either a clown or an ogre. Having watched the Australian, the leading (and sometimes conservative, but Rupert Murdoch controlled) newspaper since the start of the primaries, the only man in the whole USA that is actually dumber than Trump is Carson. I have taken this as a crude measure of the hope that the "establishment" have of control over these two. This in and of itself pretty well chooses the ideal team, but I fear that the GOP illness of preferring disaster to evangelical purity may put St Hilary into the White House. I have a long connection with Chile, and see a parallel to the campaign that Bachelet had a few years ago. She had the luxury of having to do no more than simply show up and say or propose nothing to get elected. Of course the "honest woman" is now up to ears in squalid corruption, both hard core and petty, and this is the result of the press not questioning people. They begin to think they are immune.

  2. There are more than 80% chances that Donald Trump will make it to the White House. There are several reasons for my assessment. Firstly, if history is any guide, then it is the turn of the Republicans to govern America and Donald is surely going to get their nomination. Secondly, his likely opponent Hilary will be entering with a lot of baggage, too heavy for her to win the race. Sheer incumbency factor combined with the scandals involving her personally is enough to diminish her chances of winning.Thirdly, it was too much for the American people to experiment with a black president. They are not ready to repeat the same with respect to electing a female candidate. Despite all the technological advancements, America is a conservative society and will take another decade or so to elect a woman running the show at the White House.

    On the other hand, Donald has got all that is needed to win the nomination and the election. He is wealthy, got an urban macho face and personality and a battle cry which stokes the feelings of common white American.

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