by Dr. Ed Berry
In the past week, Donald Trump’s poll numbers have climbed and Cruz has crashed. Here’s a national poll:
In the past week, Trump gained 4 points while Cruz lost 11 points, for a total of 15 points net gain over Cruz.
Here is a New York poll as of April 12:
Trump’s dominance in New York justifies raising our estimate of the delegates Trump will win in New York.
As before, we begin with RealClearPolitics count of delegates awarded data as of April 12. Then we use Nelson Hultberg’s estimated delegate wins, except we will change his numbers for New York to new data.
Optimus polls released its county by county polls for New York on April 15. They project Trump will win 85 delegates, Cruz 1, and Kasich 9. This is significantly better than Hultberg projected. This suggests Trump will do better than Hultberg estimated in the remaining states. However, we will change only our numbers for New York.
If the GOP does not fraudulently reset the voting machines or outright steal delegates already awarded, then here is what the present data projects for the elections through April 26:
The blue shows the delegates won. The orange shows the delegates needed to get 1237.
Trump will have 959 delegates. He will need only 278 more or 49% of the remaining delegates to get 1237.
Cruz will have 599 delegates. He will need 638 delegates to get 1237 or 113% of the remaining delegates. Therefore, Cruz will be out of the race for 1237.
Let’s look at the full list of the states yet to vote. We showed the data in this list through April in the above chart. Here is the rest of the projected estimated delegates. We assume Cruz gets the delegates that Trump does not win. Maybe Kasich will get some of the votes we have assigned to Cruz.
In this scenario, Trump ends up with 1256 total delegates, or 19 above 1237. He is likely to get much more than 1256.
After April 26, Cruz may lose voters when they may realize Cruz can’t get 113 percent of the remaining votes. Trump has momentum now and this will increase after the April elections.
A good reason to vote for Trump rather than Kasich or Cruz is a clean win will let Trump choose the best VP without having to make a deal with someone.
Donald J Trump is going to win one for the Gipper.