by Dr. Ed Berry, published in Daily Inter Lake, September 29, 2008
On Thursday evening, I attended the Flathead Valley Climate Lecture Series featuring Dr. Steve Running giving his talk, “Climate Change in the Northern Rockies.”
As an atmospheric physicist, I was appalled at the invalid physics used in the attempt to support the fundamental assumption of the Lecture Series, namely, that human emissions of carbon dioxide are causing significant global warming.
The Lecture Series is about politics, not science, and is aimed at controlling America’s energy via restricting carbon emissions.
The issue of global warming has such immense political impact on our use of energy, our economy, and our lives that we should not go down the path of government regulations in an attempt to control human global warming unless we know (a) it is a problem, (b) how to solve it and (c) we can afford to solve it.
I and many other atmospheric scientists have concluded that human greenhouse gases cannot cause significant global warming and there is no basis for alarmism or government regulations on our carbon emissions.
The hypothesis that human greenhouse gases cause global warming is invalid for many reasons but here are a few physics reasons:
- Physics calculations show the global temperature increase from doubling carbon dioxide concentration is about 1 degree C maximum, and most likely about 0.5 degrees C.
- This increase is insignificant and it does not justify political action or restricting carbon dioxide emissions.
- Climate models have incorrectly predicted 4 degrees C or more and contain errors that make them invalid. That many climate models produce similar results does not mean they are correct. Rather, it shows they are all wrong.
- All models fail in replicating cloud cover, which is much more important than all human greenhouse gases.
- Climate models do not properly calculate water vapor which is responsible for 95% of the total greenhouse gas effect.
- The maximum greenhouse effect from human emissions is 0.28%. Even a 10% error in the calculating water vapor is 300 times greater than the whole human greenhouse effect. The models are not close to 10% accuracy in water vapor. In order to evaluate the human component, the models must be 1000 times better.
- Climate models give similar results because they use the same “fudge factor” given them by the UN IPCC. This fudge factor (climate sensitivity) determines how the models compute global warming. The IPCC has not published its derivation of its fudge factor for scientific peer review.
- The fudge factor is needed to calculate the effects of water vapor and clouds which the models cannot calculate directly.
- In 2007, scientists reversed engineered the secret UN IPCC fudge factor, found it to be incorrect, corrected it, and showed the correct factor would make the models predict 0.5 to 1.0 C change for a doubling of carbon dioxide.
- Dr. Running used the standard faulty argument to justify his conclusion that humans cause global warming. The argument is circular. It first assumes the models are correct. Then the models adjust many fudge factors until they fit the temperature data from 1860 to 1980. Then they change the fudge factors to assume simulated human and natural caused changes. Simulations make wild guesses at the effects of volcanoes, solar input and aerosols. The fudge factors allow the models to fit the last 20 years of data. Then Dr. Running and others promoting global warming conclude this magician stunt “proves” humans are causing global warming. This reasoning is so bad it has been highly criticized in Science magazine.
Let’s not let our governments commit and spend billions of dollars on a non problem.