CONTRADICTIONS TO IPCC’S CLIMATE CHANGE THEORY
American Meteorological Society 99th Annual Meeting
Poster Presentation 4 to 6 pm on January 8, 2019
Published on AMS website here
Edwin X Berry
Climate Physics LLC, Bigfork, Montana, USA
Two climate theories compete to predict the 14C data from 1970 to 2014. The physics theory of atmospheric CO2 competes with the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) theory of atmospheric CO2.
The physics theory makes only one assumption: outflow is proportional to level. The physics model accurately predicts the 14C data using a constant residence time of 16.5 years. This becomes the upper bound for the residence time of 12C-CO2.
The IPCC model cannot predict how 14C-CO2 reduced its level from 1970 to 2014. Therefore, IPCC theory fails the scientific method.
IPCC theory assumes human CO2 reduced the buffer capacity of the carbonate system. But the 14C data show the residence time, and therefore the buffer capacity, have remained constant. IPCC theory assumes an adjustment time that is greater than the residence time, but the 14C data show adjustment time equals residence time. The IPCC theory treats human and natural CO2 differently, so IPCC theory is fundamentally wrong.
The physics model shows the ratio of human to natural CO2 in the atmosphere equals the ratio of their inflows, independent of residence time. It predicts human CO2 adds only 18 ppm to the atmosphere while natural CO2 adds 392 ppm.
The physics model shows CO2 inflow does not “add” to atmospheric CO2. It sets a balance level for CO2 in the atmosphere. The level moves to its balance level until outflow equals inflow. Then, if inflow remains constant, the level will remain constant. Continued, constant human emissions do not add more CO2 to the atmosphere.
The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001a) Executive Summary claims human emissions caused atmospheric CO2 to increase from 280 ppm in 1750, to 410 ppm in 2018, for a total increase of 130 ppm.
The IPCC claims “abundant published literature” shows, with “considerable certainty,” that nature has been a “net carbon sink” since 1750, so nature could not have caused the observed rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide.
The U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report (USGCRP, 2018) agrees with the IPCC and claims,
“This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century.”
The IPCC and the USGCRP claim there are “no convincing alternative explanations” other than their theory to explain “observational evidence.” IPCC and USGCRP are wrong.
This paper presents the “convincing alternative explanation” that IPCC and USGCRP claim does not exist.
Fig. 1 illustrates the disagreement. The physics model and the IPCC model agree the annual inflow of human and natural-produced CO2 is 4.6 and 98 ppm respectively.
Levels are in units of ppm. Flows are in units of ppm per year. GtC (Gigatons of Carbon) units are converted into CO2 units in ppm (parts per million by volume in dry air), using:
1 ppm = 2.13 GtC
The physics theory predicts the ratio of human to natural CO2 in the atmosphere equals their ratio in the inflow. It predicts human CO2 produces 4.5 percent and nature produces 95.5 percent of the present level of atmospheric CO2.
The IPCC theory predicts human CO2 produces 32 percent and nature produces 68 percent of the present level of CO2.
Authors who conclude human emissions cause only a minor increase in the level of atmospheric CO2 include Revelle and Suess (1957), Starr (1992), Segalstad (1992, 1996, 1998), Rorsch et al. (2005), Courtney (2008), Siddons and D’Aleo (2007), Quirk (2009), Spencer (2009), MacRae (2010, 2015), Essenhigh (2009), Glassman (2010), Wilde (2012), Caryl (2013), Humlum et al. (2013), Salby (2012, 2014, 2016), Harde (2017a), and Berry (2018).
Segalstad (1998), Ball (2008, 2013, 2018), and Salby (2014) present evidence that the level in 1750 was higher than 280 ppm. Nevertheless, this paper uses IPCC data to prove the IPCC theory is wrong.
Authors who support the IPCC include Cawley (2011), Kern and Leuenberger (2013), Masters and Benestad (2013), Richardson (2013), and the Kohler et al. (2017) comment on Harde (2017a).
2. Theories must simulate data
2.1 The 14C Data
The above-ground atomic bomb tests in the 1950s to 1960s almost doubled the concentration of 14C in the atmosphere. The 14C atoms were in the form of CO2, hereinafter called 14C-CO2.
The 14C data are in units of D14C per mil. In D14C units, the natural balance level is zero, as defined by the average measured level before 1950.
After the cessation of the bomb tests in 1963, the concentration of 14C-CO2 gradually decreased toward its natural balance level. The decrease occurred because the bomb-caused 14C inflow went to zero while the natural 14C inflow remained.
There are two good 14C data sources. Hua et al. (2013) processed 14C data for both hemispheres from 1954 to 2010 using 61 mid-year data points. Turnbull et al. (2017) processed 14C data for Wellington, New Zealand, from 1954 to 2014 using 721 data points. After 1970, 14C-CO2 were well mixed between the hemispheres, so the 14C data from both sources are virtually identical after 1970.
Fig. 2 shows the global average data for D14C (Hua et al., 2013).
Fig. 3 shows the New Zealand data for D14C (Turnbull et al., 2017).
Figs. 2 and 3 show the physics model accurately simulates the 14C-CO2 data from 1970 to 2014. The physics model uses Eq. (A.8) with the residence time set to 16.5 years and the balance level set to zero.
Note for non-technical readers: The use of “Equation” when beginning a sentence and “Eq.” inside a sentence before “(#)” is standard terminology to reference mathematical equations.
2.2 Physics model simulates the 14C data
Section 3 and Appendix A describe the physics theory and model. The physics theory uses only one simple assumption, namely,
outflow equals level divided by residence time.
The physics theory results in mathematical equations that become the physics model. To calculate the results of the physics model in Figs. 1 and 2 using Eq. (A.8), set the starting level Lo to the measured D14C level in mid-1970, and set the balance level Lb to zero. Find the residence time Te by trial and error until the result gives a good “eyeball” fit to the data.
The physics model has no arbitrary curve-fit parameters. Once the residence time Te matches the data, the fitting is done.
The accurate match of Eq. (A.8) to the 14C data proves two things:
- 14C-CO2 outflow equals the level L divided by the residence time Te, and
- 14C-CO2 residence time remained constant at 16.5 years from 1970 to 2014.
The residence time of 16.5 years for 14C-CO2 is the upper bound for the residence time of 12C-CO2 because 12C-CO2 react and flow faster than 14C-CO2.
The physics model shows how natural 14C inflow sets a “balance level” for 14C-CO2. The level always moves towards its balance level. When the level equals the balance level, outflow equals inflow, and the level remains constant.
2.3 Physics model predicts CO2 outflow
All valid CO2 models must replicate the 14C data after 1970. According to the scientific method, it is impossible to prove a theory correct but if a prediction is wrong, the theory is wrong.
Section 4 and Appendix B describe the IPCC (2001a) theory and model. The IPCC does not derive its mathematics directly from its theory. Rather the IPCC inserted its theory into its climate models. Then the IPCC created a seven-parameter curve fit to the output of its climate models (Joos et al., 2013). The resulting curve fit is known as the “Bern model” (Bern, 2002). Therefore, the Bern model contains the mathematics for the IPCC theory.
Fig. 4 shows how Eq. (A.8) of the physics model and Eq. (B.1) of the Bern model predict how CO2 in the atmosphere will approach its balance level. All model calculations begin the simulation with the initial level set to 100 and the balance level set to zero.
In Fig. 4, because of its very close match to the 14C-CO2 data in Figs. 2 and 3, the physics model uses a residence time of 16.5 years to simulate the 14C-CO2 data and a residence time of 4 years to simulate 12C-CO2.
The Bern model predicts a dramatically different change in level than the physics model does. For the first year, the Bern outflow is faster than the physics model for 12C-CO2. Then the Bern model outflow decreases while its residence time increases. The Bern model line crosses the 14C data line which is the upper bound for 12C-CO2 residence time.
The Bern model is also unphysical. The Bern model, if restarted at any point on its prediction line, cannot simulate its original Bern prediction line. A valid model must continue its same prediction line if it is restarted at any point on its line. The Bern model predicts a different future if it is restarted at any point on its curve.
2.4 Adjustment time equals residence time
IPCC (2001b) defines “turnover time (T)” the same as residence time (Te):
Turnover time (T) is the ratio of the mass M of a reservoir (e.g., a gaseous compound in the atmosphere) and the total rate of removal S from the reservoir: T = M/S.
This IPCC definition is the same as the physics model assumption that outflow [S] equals level [M] divided by residence time [T]. IPCC (2001b) defines “adjustment time (Ta)” as:
Adjustment time (Ta) is the time-scale characterising the decay of an instantaneous pulse input into the reservoir.
IPCC agrees adjustment time equals residence time when outflow is proportional to level:
In simple cases, where the global removal of the compound is directly proportional to the total mass of the reservoir, the adjustment time equals the turnover time: T = Ta.
The accurate simulation of 14C-CO2 outflow by the physics model proves CO2 outflow is proportional to level. Therefore, by IPCC’s own definition, its adjustment time equals residence time.
IPCC (2001b) agrees 12C-CO2 residence time is about 4 years but claims its adjustment time is much longer. IPCC claims adjustment time is “fast initially and slower later on,” which describes the prediction of its Bern model in Fig. 4:
In more complicated cases, where several reservoirs are involved or where the removal is not proportional to the total mass, the equality T = Ta no longer holds.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an extreme example. Its turnover time is only about 4 years because of the rapid exchange between atmosphere and the ocean and terrestrial biota.
Although an approximate value of 100 years may be given for the adjustment time of CO2 in the atmosphere, the actual adjustment is faster initially and slower later on.
Figs. 2 and 3 show how 14C-CO2 recovered from a perturbation of human-caused inflow of 14C-CO2. Its “adjustment time” is 16.5 years, not hundreds of years. The recovery from 1970 to 2014 did not just exchange molecules. It changed the level of 14C-CO2. The level approached its balance level exactly as the physics theory predicts. According to IPCC definitions, the adjustment time of 14-CO2 equals the residence time of 16.5 years.
Kohler et al. (2017) disagree:
“The IPCC summarizes the state of the art in peer-reviewed literature. Hence neither the residence time nor the adjustment time are assumptions or interpretations of the IPCC-AR5, but robust outcomes of the underlying science.”
Kohler attempts to argue by authority. That is not the way of science. The implication of “Hence” is that the IPCC summaries are so perfect that no one may disagree. The problem with Kohler’s claim is the IPCC model prediction disagrees with data. Therefore, the IPCC theory is wrong.
Respectfully, the IPCC theory fails the scientific method. It makes wrong predictions. It contradicts physics. Its so-called “state of the art in peer-reviewed literature” is a repetition of inbred, invalid, pampered, and protected claims. It is time for Toto to pull the curtain to reveal the wizard for the fraud that it is.
3. Data support the physics model
3.1 14C data support the physics model
Kohler et al. (2017) argue that human fossil-fuel emissions of “14C-free” CO2 lower the 14C balance level. Well, human emissions do lower the 14C balance level, but by how much?
The physics model assigns 95.5 percent to natural emissions and 4.5 percent to human emissions, as shown in Fig. 1. The IPCC model assigns 68 percent to natural emissions and 32 percent to human emissions, according to IPCC (2001a) as shown in Fig. 1.
The physics model predicts human CO2 has lowered the balance level of 14C from zero to -4.5. The IPCC model predicts human CO2 has lowered the balance level of 14C from zero to -32, or 7.2 times as much as the physics model predicts. The calculations are shown in Appendix D.
Fig. 5 shows how the physics model plot changes when the balance level is changed from zero to -4.5.
Fig. 6 shows how the plot changes when the balance level is set to -32.
Fig. 5 shows little difference from Fig. 3 which uses a balance level of zero. This shows the physics prediction for 13C fits the data. Fig. 6 shows a significant difference from Fig. 3. This shows the IPCC prediction does not fit the data. Therefore, the 14C data support the physics model and prove the IPCC model is wrong.
3.2 13C data support the physics model
RealClimate (2004b), in support of the IPCC, says the 13C/12C ratio for human emissions is about 98 percent of the ratio in natural emissions, and the ratio has declined about 0.15 percent since 1850. RealClimate concludes the above data prove human CO2 caused all the increase in atmospheric CO2 since 1850. But it is important to use numbers to find the real conclusion.
The physics model assigns 95.5 percent to natural emissions and 4.5 percent to human emissions, as shown in Fig. 1. The IPCC model assigns 68 percent to natural emissions and 32 percent to human emissions. The physics model concludes human emissions will have lowered the 13C ratio by 0.09. The IPCC model concludes human emissions will have lowered the 13C ration by 0.64. The calculations are shown in Appendix E.
Fig. 7 compares the decrease in the 13C ratio according to RealClimate, the physics model, and the IPCC model.
Clearly, the 13C data support the physics theory and contradict the IPCC theory.
3.3 IPCC claim of human cause does not correlate
IPCC (2001a) claims annual human CO2 emissions cause annual increases in the level of CO2 in the atmosphere.
The overall rise in atmospheric CO2 corresponds to the rise of human CO2 emissions. However, it is important to remove overall trends in any time series and then correlate the individual values in the time series.
Munshi (2017) shows the “detrended correlation analysis of annual emissions and annual changes in atmospheric CO2” is zero.
Therefore, IPCC’s claim of “considerable certainty” that human emissions increase atmospheric CO2 fails. Where there is no correlation, there is no cause and effect. Statistics show human CO2 is not responsible for most of the increase in atmospheric CO2 since 1750.
4. The physics model
4.1 Physics model derivation
A system describes a subset of nature. A system includes levels and flows between levels. Flows are rates. Levels set the flows and the flows set the new levels (Forrester, 1968).
Fig. 8 illustrates the system for atmospheric CO2. The system includes the level (concentration) of CO2 in the atmosphere and the inflow and outflow of CO2.
The physics theory results in mathematical equations that become the physics model. The physics model shows how natural CO2 inflow sets a “balance level” for CO2. The level always moves towards its balance level. When the level equals the balance level, outflow equals inflow, and the level remains constant.
The level of CO2 in the atmosphere behaves like the level of water in a lake where water flows into the lake and then out over a dam. Inflow sets the balance level. The inflow simply raises the lake level until outflow equals inflow. No water “accumulates” in the lake.
The level of CO2 in the atmosphere also behaves like water in a bucket where water from a hose flows into the bucket and then flows out through a hole in the bottom. As the level increases, outflow increases. When outflow equals inflow, the level remains constant. No water “accumulates” in the bucket.
Inflow and outflow include the effects of outside processes. The only way an outside process can change the level is by changing inflow or outflow.
The system and all its equations apply independently to all definitions of CO2, for example, 14C-CO2, 12C-CO2, human CO2, and natural CO2, and their sums.
The mathematics used to describe the physics model are simple and analogous to the mathematics used to describe many engineering systems.
Appendix A shows the mathematical derivation of the physics model. It begins with the continuity equation, Eq. (A.1).
Then the physics model makes one and only one assumption, namely, that the outflow is proportional to level. More specifically, outflow equals level divided by residence time, Eq. (A.2).
All other physics model equations are deductions from the continuity equation and the one assumption. For example, the balance Level equals inflow multiplied by residence time, Eq. (A.4).
Equation (A.8) is the analytic solution to the physics model rate equation. It calculates the level as a function of time, given a starting level, a balance level, and a residence time.
The Kohler et al. (2017) comment on Harde (2017a) concludes,
“Harde … uses a too simplistic approach, that is based on invalid assumptions, and which leads to flawed results for anthropogenic carbon in the atmosphere. We suggest that the paper be withdrawn by the author, editor or publisher due to fundamental errors in the understanding of the carbon cycle.”
There is no tolerance in Kohler’s world for a contradictory opinion. Like the promoters of Lysenkoism, Kohler wants Harde (2017a) withdrawn. In possible response, the journal refused to publish Harde’s (2017b) rebuttal to Kohler.
Kohler claims Harde’s system, and therefore the physics system, is “too simplistic” to be valid. Kohler claims a valid atmospheric CO2 system must contain at least two levels.
Kohler is wrong. There is no such thing as a system being “too simplistic.” A system should be as simple as possible to solve a problem. Each level of a system is isolated and connected to other levels by inflows and outflows.
The physics system does not exclude the effects of outside processes. Outside processes change the atmosphere level by changing its inflow or outflow.
The physics system properly computes how inflow and outflow change the level of CO2 in the atmosphere. Its equations and conclusions for the atmosphere level would not change if the atmosphere level were connected to another level.
Kohler’s comments on Harde are invalid because they derive from Kohler’s misunderstanding of the system that Harde used. Kohler et al. simply do not understand systems.
Kohler can’t get the physics of the atmosphere level correct. Worse, Kohler thinks adding more levels would correct their errors in the atmosphere level. Kohler claims more complex models give correct answers. It does not work that way. One must get the physics inside each level correct independently before hooking levels together with flows.
Like software development, one must get the functions and procedures correct independently. Then one can connect the parts of the program by flows of data.
4.2 Physics model consequences
The accurate fit of the physics model to the data supports the theory in Eq. (A.2). Therefore, the deductions of the physics theory are to be trusted over the claims of the IPCC theory. Here are some deductions of the physics theory.
Eq. (A.4) shows the balance level equals the product of the inflow and the residence time. Using IPCC numbers, the balance levels of human and natural CO2 are,
Lbh = 4.6 (ppm/year) * 4 (years) = 18 ppm (1)
Lbn = 98 (ppm/year) * 4 (years) = 392 ppm (2)
Their ratio and percentage are independent of residence time,
Lbh / Lbn = 4.6 / 98 = 18 / 392 = 4.6 percent (3)
Lbh / (Lbn + Lbh ) = 4.6 / 102.6 = 18.4 / 410 = 4.5 percent (4)
These results are indicated in Fig. 1.
Equation (1) shows present human emissions create a balance level of 18 ppm. This balance level for human emissions is independent of nature’s balance level. If nature’s balance level remained at 280 ppm as the IPCC claims it was in 1750, then the present human emissions would have increased the level of CO2 in the atmosphere by 18 ppm, for a total of 298 ppm.
Equation (2) shows present natural emissions create a balance level of 392 ppm. The addition of the human contribution of 18 ppm brings the total balance level to 410 ppm, which is close to the level in 2018.
Equation (3) shows the balance ratio of human-produced to nature-produced CO2 is 4.6 percent or the ratio of their inflows, independent of residence time. The IPCC calls the ratio in Eq. (3) the “airborne fraction.”
Equation (4) shows the percentage of human-produced CO2 in the atmosphere equals its percentage of its inflow, independent of residence time.
Equations (1) and (2) support Harde (2017a) and its key conclusions:
“Under present conditions, the natural emissions contribute 373 ppm and anthropogenic emissions 17 ppm to the total concentration of 390 ppm (2012).”
The clear conclusion is human CO2 emissions have a negligible effect on the level of atmospheric CO2.
While the details are outside the scope of this paper, Appendix C (Harde, 2017a) shows how temperature can increase the balance level to account for the rise in atmospheric CO2 since 1750.
Cawley (2011) argues the ratio of human to natural CO2 in the atmosphere is a function of residence time. Equation (3) shows the ratio is independent of residence time.
Cawley’s Eqs. (3), (4), and (5) incorrectly assume that outflow depends upon its value at time zero. His Eqs. (7) and (8) incorrectly model human and natural CO2 differently. Therefore, all Cawley’s conclusions are wrong.
4.3 Physics model significance
The physics model is simple. The continuity equation, Eq. (A.1), is a given. The only theory is Eq. (A.2) that outflow equals level divided by residence time.
Occam’s Razor says the simplest theory that explains a process is the preferred theory. Equation (A.2) is the simplest possible theory for atmospheric CO2.
The physics model shows the inflow of CO2 into the atmosphere sets a balance level for CO2 in the atmosphere. The level moves to the balance level until outflow equals inflow. Then, if inflow remains constant, the level will remain constant. Continued, constant human emissions do not add more CO2 to the atmosphere.
The physics model shows if human CO2 is 4.5 percent and natural CO2 is 96.5 percent of the inflow of CO2 into the atmosphere, then human CO2 will be 4.5 percent and natural CO2 will be 96.5 percent of the total CO2 in the atmosphere. Indeed, this result is common sense.
The physics model shows we must think in a new paradigm about how CO2 flows into and out of our atmosphere. The atmosphere is not a garbage dump for CO2. CO2 does not “accumulate” in the atmosphere.
Nothing outside the atmosphere changes the physics model’s conclusions. But the conclusions of the physics model change entirely the dominant worldview of how human emissions change the level of CO2 in our atmosphere.
5. The IPCC Model
5.1 IPCC theory contradicts nature
IPCC (2001a) argues its Bern model applies only to human CO2. However, CO2 molecules from human and natural sources are identical. Therefore, all valid models must treat human and natural CO2 the same.
IPCC’s Bern Eq. (B.1) predicts 15 percent all CO2 entering the atmosphere stays in the atmosphere forever and about 40 percent stays in the atmosphere for almost 1000 years.
Bern Eq. (B.1) applied to natural CO2 predicts 100 ppm per year for 100 years will leave 1500 ppm in the atmosphere forever. This clearly invalid prediction proves the Bern model and IPCC’s theory are wrong.
The 14C data show CO2 has a constant residence time and no CO2 stays in the atmosphere.
The Bern model is wrong because
- it cannot simulate the 14C data,
- its predictions for human and natural CO2 are wrong,
- it predicts a different future if it is restarted at any point on its curve, and
- it treats human and natural CO2 differently.
Siegenthaler and Joos (1992) created the original Bern model. The original model contained levels for the deep and interior oceans that connected to the upper ocean, as can be seen in their Fig. 1.
IPCC reconnected the original model’s deep and interior ocean levels directly to the atmosphere level, bypassing the upper ocean level. That is why the Bern model has three residence times for the atmosphere level rather than one. Connecting flows to the wrong levels violates the principles of systems (Forrester, 1968) and will give the wrong answer.
The Bern model forces the three residence times to act in series rather than in parallel. The series connection lets a long residence-time outflow restrict a small residence-time outflow, like a small hole in a bucket restricting the flow out of a large hole. It won’t happen. Only a parallel connection would properly represent the three residence times.
Siegenthaler and Joos (1992) understood their model should reproduce the carbon-14 data and were disappointed that it did not do so.
5.2 IPCC buffer theory is wrong
IPCC theory says human CO2 emissions, but not natural emissions, reduce the “buffer capacity” of the carbonate system.
There are three things wrong with this IPCC claim:
- It requires nature to separate human CO2 from natural CO2, which is impossible.
- It assumes nature’s inflow does not increase and reduce buffer capacity.
- The 14C data show there has been no reduction in buffer capacity.
IPCC’s theory is based upon its assumption that natural CO2 inflow remained constant after 1750 while human CO2 inflow caused all the CO2 increase after 1750.
IPCC (2001a) claims,
“The fraction of anthropogenic CO2 that is taken up by the ocean declines with increasing CO2 concentration, due to reduced buffer capacity of the carbonate system.”
Kohler et al. (2017) claim human emissions reduced the “buffer capacity” of the carbonate system:
“the rise in atmospheric and oceanic carbon content goes along with an increase in the Revelle factor, a phenomenon which is already measurable. This implies that the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon will become slower if we continue to increase anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This is already seen in all CHIMP5 model simulations.”
Kohler’s last sentence illustrates the illogical method used by Kohler and the IPCC. They use circular reasoning to claim a model proves what has been fed into the model.
Regarding the Revelle factor being “measurable,” the 14C data show no evidence of its effect. Reduced buffer capacity would restrict the outflow of CO2 and increase the CO2 level, which would increase the residence time. But the 14C data, shown in Figs. 2 and 3, prove the residence time has been constant while CO2 increased from 1970 to 2014.
The Bern model predicts an increase in residence time because it incorrectly assumes that human CO2 has reduced the buffer capacity. In science, data takes precedence over theory.
Ecologist Patrick Moore (2017) claims human CO2 has converted locked carbon into free carbon and upset nature’s balance. Therefore, he argues, human CO2 has caused all the increase in atmospheric CO2 above 280 ppm. He produces no numbers to support his claim.
Moore’s argument is basically the same as made by the IPCC. If Moore’s claim, that human CO2 caused all the CO2 increase, were correct, then human burning of fossil fuels would have reduced the buffer capacity of the carbonate system. It has not. Therefore, the amount of carbon released is too small to have caused CO2 to increase.
The 14C data prove there has been no decrease in buffer capacity. Therefore, IPCC theory and Patrick Moore are wrong.
5.3 14C-CO2 follow 12C-CO2
The 12C-CO2 molecules participate in the same chemical reactions as 14C-CO2 except 12C-CO2 reacts faster because it is lighter than 14C-CO2.
RealClimate (2004a) agrees:
“All isotopes of an element behave in a similar way chemically. However, because the mass of each isotope is slightly different there are certain physical processes that will discriminate (or ‘fractionate’) between them.”
However, Kohler et al. (2017) claim 14C-CO2 does not trace 12C-CO2 because 12C-CO2 is restrained by decreased the ocean’s buffer capacity while 14C-CO2 is not.
Kohler’s claim is wrong. First, there is no physical or chemical mechanism to explain Kohler’s claim. If buffer capacity decreased and slowed the flow of 12C-CO2 into the oceans, it would also slow the flow of 14C-CO2 into the oceans. Second, there is no evidence of decreased buffer capacity.
Therefore, 14C-CO2 traces how 12C-CO2 flows out of the atmosphere.
5.4 IPCC core argument is illogical
IPCC (2001a) claims “abundant published literature” shows, with “considerable certainty,” that nature has been a “net carbon sink” since 1750, so nature could not have caused the observed rise in atmospheric carbon dioxide.
But “abundant published literature” is irrelevant in science because votes don’t count. Claims of “extensive evidence” are irrelevant because the scientific method says if a theory makes only one false prediction the theory is wrong. And the IPCC theory makes many false predictions that prove its “abundant published literature” claims are wrong.
In its core argument, the IPCC correctly notes that human emissions from 1750 to 2013 totaled 185 ppm while atmospheric CO2 increased by only 117 ppm. But the IPCC incorrectly concludes that this proves human CO2 caused the increase.
The IPCC argument omits natural CO2 which totaled about 26,000 ppm in the same period. So, the stronger logical counter-argument is that nature caused all the increase.
The IPCC also correctly notes nature is a “net absorber” because it absorbs the outflow of human CO2 emissions. But the IPCC incorrectly argues that this proves human CO2 caused all the increase.
Nature’s absorption of human CO2 outflow cannot constrain nature’s CO2 inflow. Inflow and outflow are two different physical processes. The natural inflow of 98 ppm per year shown in Fig. 1 can be any number, larger or smaller, and nature will still absorb the outflow of human CO2. The IPCC invents constraints where none exist.
The physics model accurately simulates the fall of 14C from 1970 to 2014. The physics model accurately predicts the 14C data using a constant residence time of 16.5 years. This is the upper bound for the residence time of 12C-CO2.
The IPCC model cannot simulate the 14C data because it uses an unrealistic model that assumes the residence time increases with the level of CO2. IPCC claims human CO2 reduced the buffer capacity of the carbonate system. But the 14C data shows there has been no reduction in buffer capacity.
The IPCC assumes there is an “adjustment time” that measures the outflow of CO2 from the atmosphere. This IPCC assumption contradicts the 14C data which clearly show the IPCC “adjustment time” is the same as the residence time.
The physics model accurately predicts how human CO2 lowers the balance level of 14C and 13C in the atmosphere. The IPCC model way overpredicts how human CO2 lowers the balance level of 14C and 13C.
The physics model treats human and natural CO2 the same. The IPCC model treats human and natural CO2 differently, so IPCC theory is fundamentally wrong.
The physics model represents reality. The IPCC model represents the imagination of the IPCC.
The physics model makes only one assumption: outflow is proportional to level. It shows the ratio of human to natural CO2 in the atmosphere equals the ratio of their inflows, independent of residence time. It predicts human CO2 adds only 18 ppm to the atmosphere while natural CO2 adds 392 ppm.
The physics model shows CO2 inflow sets a balance level for CO2 in the atmosphere. The level moves to its balance level until outflow equals inflow. Then, if inflow remains constant, the level will remain constant. Continued, constant human emissions do not add more CO2 to the atmosphere.
Appendix A: Physics model math
We use the system definition of Section 4.1 to derive the physics model. We begin with the continuity equation:
dL/dt = Inflow – Outflow (A.1)
L = CO2 level
dL/dt = the rate of change of L
t = time
Inflow = the rate CO2 moves into the system
Outflow = the rate CO2 moves out of the system
Assume outflow is proportional to level,
Outflow = L / Te (A.2)
where Te is the 1/e residence time.
Substitute Eq. (A,2) into the continuity Eq. (A.1),
dL/dt = Inflow – L / Te (A.3)
To find an equation for Inflow, let the level equal its balance level, Lb. Then the level is constant and Eq. (A.3) becomes
Lb = Inflow * Te (A.4)
Equation (A.4) shows how inflow sets the balance level. Substitute Eq. (A.4) for Inflow into Eq. (A.3) to get,
dL/dt = – (L – Lb) / Te (A.5)
Equation (A.5) shows how level always moves toward its balance level. If inflow is zero, Lb is zero, and outflow will continue until the level goes to zero. Rearrange Eq. (A.5) to get
dL / (L – Lb) = – dt / Te (A.6)
Then integrate Eq. (A.6) from Lo to L on the left side, and from 0 to t on the right side, to get,
Ln [(L – Lb) / (Lo – Lb)] = – t / Te (A.7)
Ln = natural logarithm or logarithm to base e
Lo = Level at time zero (t = 0)
Lb = the balance level for a given inflow and Te
Te = “residence time” for L to move (1 – 1/e) of the distance to Lb
e = 2.7183
(The original integration of Eq. (A.6) contains two absolute functions, but they cancel each other because both L and Lo are always either above or below Lb.)
Raise e to the power of each side of Eq. (A.7), to get the level as a function of time:
L(t) = Lb + (Lo – Lb) exp(- t / Te) (A.8)
Equation (A.8) is the analytic solution of Eq. (A.5).
The only assumption in the physics model is Eq. (A.2), namely, outflow equals level divided by residence time. All equations after Eq. (A.2) are deductions from this assumption.
Appendix B: Bern model math
The Bern (2002) model is an integral equation rather than a level or rate equation. The Bern model integrates the inflow of CO2 from minus infinity to any time in the future.
To deconstruct the integral version of the Bern model, let inflow occur only in the year when “t-prime” equals zero (t’ = 0). Then the integral disappears, and the Bern model becomes a level equation.
The Bern level equation is,
L(t) = Lo [ A0 + A1 exp(- t/T1) + A2 exp(- t/T2) + A3 exp(- t/T3)] (B.1)
t = time in years
Lo = the level of atmospheric CO2 due to inflow in year t = 0
L(t) = the level of atmospheric CO2 after year t = 0
where the Bern IPCC TAR standard values are,
A0 = 0.152
A1 = 0.253
A2 = 0.279
A3 = 0.319
T1 = 173 years
T2 = 18.5 years
T3 = 1.19 years
The A-values merely weight the four terms on the right-hand side of Eq. (B.1):
A0 + A1 + A2 + A3 = 1.000
Set t equal to infinity. Then Eq. (B.1) becomes,
L = Ao Lo = 0.152 Lo (B.2)
Equation (B.2) predicts a one-year inflow that sets Lo to 100 ppm, followed by zero inflow forever, will cause a permanent level of 15 ppm.
Appendix C: How temperature increases CO2
It is outside the scope of this paper to show how the balance level of CO2 changes with surface temperature.
Harde (2017a) showed how both inflow and outflow depend on surface temperature, and how this causes the balance level to be a non-linear function of surface temperature. Harde used paleoclimate data as well as modern instrumental data to show how the natural balance level of CO2 in the atmosphere depends on surface temperature.
Kohler (2017) criticize Harde’s method. However, Harde (2017b) proves Kohler is wrong. Unfortunately, the journal did not publish the Harde (2017b) reply to Kohler.
Fig. C1 shows a plot using Harde’s Eq. (17).
Appendix D: How the models fit the 14C data
Table D.1. Row 1 shows the natural and human 14C ratios in units of D14C. Row 2 and Row 4 show the physics and IPCC natural and human fractions. Row 3 is the product of Row 1 and Row 2. Row 5 is the product of Row 1 and Row 4.
|1||14C Ratio||0||-100||Figs. 2 & 3|
Appendix E: How the models fit the 13C data
Table E.1. Row 1 shows the natural and human 13C ratios. Row 2 and Row 4 show the physics and IPCC natural and human fractions. Row 3 is the product of Row 1 and Row 2. Row 5 is the product of Row 1 and Row 4.
This 8-year research project was funded by the personal funds of Edwin and Valerie Berry.
The author thanks Chuck Wiese, Laurence Gould, Tom Sheahen, and Charles Camenzuli, who provided scientific critique, and Daniel Nebert, Gordon Danielson, and Valerie Berry, who provided language and grammar improvements.
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