Collapse of IPCC’s AGW theory, Part 1

by Kyoji Kimoto,


Figure 1. IPCC’s AGW theory is a fictitious science with three erroneous components.


 Figure 2. IPCC’s AGW theory has been built up with erroneous model studies.

1. Two defects in the basic papers of IPCC’s AGW theory

Figure 2 shows the history of model studies supporting IPCC’s claim that CS(WF) is 3K. If an intrinsic difficulty is found out in [Manabe et al, 1964/67], it will collapse instantly. This essay points out the following two defects of these papers.

Defect 1:Instability of computation results in RCM studies                      

One dimensional RCM is utilized in [Manabe et al, 1964/67] to obtain CS(NF) of 1.3K with fixed absolute humidity. CS(WF) is 2.4K when water vapor feedback is included with fixed relative humidity. The model is based on fixed lapse rate of 6.5K/km for 1xCO2 and 2xCO2.

Figure 3 shows diagrammatical expression of RCM studies with two parallel lines which means uniform warming in troposphere [Held et al., 2000]. However, computation results are unstable in this method. CSWF)varies from 0K to 4.8K with a minute change of lapse rate from 6.3K/km to 6.7K/km at 2xCO2.


Figure 3. Influence of lapse rate change on CS(WF) with CO2 doubling.

Defect2:Too large CO2 contribution in natural green house effect.

In the papers, Manabe et. al. obtained more than 10K for CO2 contribution in natural greenhouse effect of 33K [Manabe et al, 1964/67]. Since it is 3.3-6.7K from IR studies [Newell et al., 1979; Barrett, 2005], there is something wrong in their RCM calculations.

2. CS(NF) calculation based on pseudo Stefan-Boltzmann law

In 1976, Cess obtained -3.3(W/m2)/K for Planck feedback parameter Lambda0 utilizing the following procedure, which gives CS(NF) of 1.2K with radiative forcing of 4W/m2 for CO2 doubling[Cess.1976].


Cess’s procedure has been followed by many researchers including IPCC AR4 [Soden et al., 2006], which constitutes the basis of IPCC’s claim that CS(NF) is 1.2K. However, this procedure is apparently a mathematical error since Eeff is not a constant. Furthermore, the combination of Ts=288K and OLR=233W/m2 is not in accordance with Stefan-Boltzmann law [Kimoto, 2009].

3. SST will not increase as much as 2K with CO2 doubling.

(1) Hoyt, D.,2007: The collapse of arguments for high climate sensitivity

(2) Stevenson, R.E.,2000: Yes, the Ocean Has Warmed; No, It’s Not ‘Global Warming’


 Figure 4. Neglect of physics law in SST problem with CO2 doubling.

4.CS(WF) based on the observational methods.



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Cess,R.D., 1976: Climate Change: An Appraisal of Atmospheric Feedback Mechanisms      Employing Zonal Climatology. J.Atmospheric Sciences, Vol.33,1831-1843.

Douglass,D.H., Knox,R.S.,Pearson,B.D. and Clark,Jr.A.,2006: Thermocline flux exchange during the Pinatubo event. Geophysical Research Letters. Vol.33, L19711, doi:10.1029/2006GL026355.

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Kimoto, K., 2009: On the confusion of Planck feedback parameters. Energy & Environment, Vol.20, 1057-1066 (

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Lindzen R.S. and Choi Y.S.,2009: On the determination of climate feedbacks from ERBE data. Geophysical Research Letters Vol.36,L16705.DOI:10.1029/2009GL039628.

Manabe S. et al., 1964: Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Convective Adjustment. J. Atmospheric Sciences, Vol.21, 361-385.

Manabe S. et al., 1967: Thermal Equilibrium of the Atmosphere with a Given Distribution of Relative Humidity. J. Atmospheric Sciences, Vol.24, 241-259.

Manabe S. et al., 1975: The Effects of Doubling the CO2 Concentration on the Climate of a General Circulation Model. J. Atmospheric Sciences, Vol.32, 3-15.

Newell R.E. et al., 1979: Questions Concerning the Possible Influence of Anthropogenic CO2 on Atmospheric Temperature. J. Applied Meteorology, Vol.18, 822-825.

Soden,B.J. and Held I.M.,2006:An Assessment of Climate Feedbacks in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models. J.Climate, Vol.19,3354-3360.

Spencer R.W. and Braswell W.D.,2010: On the diagnosis of radiative feedback in the presence of unknown radiative forcing. Journal of Geophysical Research Vol.115: D16109.DOI:10.1029/2009JD013371.

Trenberth,K.E., Fasullo,J.T. and Kiehl,J. 2009: Earth’s global energy budget. Amer Met Soc., March 2009 BAMS 311-323.

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