by Kyoji Kimoto
The AGW theory of the IPCC was established by Dr. S. Manabe (NOAA GFDL in Princeton University) and Dr. J. Hansen (NASA GISS, Columbia University). It is theoretically failed due to the three Errors as shown below. Manabe and Hansen will be in a difficult situation when global cooling will occur with low solar activity and minus PDO index near future.
The central claim of the AGW theory can be expressed as follows, in which Planck response = 1.2K is the most basic assumption. In this essay, Planck response means no-feedback climate sensitivity obtained with the fixed absolute humidity.
Manabe & Wetherald (1967) with 1DRCM:
Climate Sensitivity=Planck response x Feedback effect (wv)
=1.3K x 1.8=2.4K
Soden & Held (2006) with fourteen 3DGCMs for AR4 of the IPCC:
Climate Sensitivity=Planck response x Feedback effects (wv, a, cl, lp)
=1.2K x 2.5=3K
- wv: water vapor,
- a: albedo,
- cl: cloud,
- lp: lapse rate
Japanese government used the AGW theory to promote nuclear power in this small country where huge earthquakes and tsunamis have occurred repeatedly. In 1998, it decided to promote 20 nuclear reactors increasing the share of nuclear power over 50 % of the energy for electricity to meet the 6% CO2 cut by Kyoto protocol in 1997. The Fukushima nuclear disaster occurred in 2011 under Government policy to avoid AGW with nuclear power.
The following is the history of the AGW theory and its use in Japan for the promotion of nuclear power. Errors in red character are explained afterwards. [Read more…]