by Dr. Ed Berry
If you like Greg Gianforte, then by all means vote for him. I do not wish to tell you how to vote. However, as I will show, there are not enough people like you to elect Gianforte governor.
Based on voter demographics, I predict Greg Gianforte will not be elected governor of Montana no matter how much money he spends on his campaign. This is not personal. I have nothing against Greg Gianforte. This is a science-based prediction. Maybe this prediction will help Gianforte design a campaign to counter his negatives.
Very Conservative Evangelicals are not qualified to solve the Republican fracture problem because they are the problem.
They have other problems. They are anti-science. They reject Aristotle’s scientific method that requires us to question and test our hypotheses and beliefs. They believe the Earth is only 6000 years old. They refuse to test their hypothesis against the overwhelming data that proves them wrong. So they never get any smarter.
This is why Very Conservative Evangelical Greg Gianforte will not be elected governor of Montana, no matter how much money he spends. He believes the Earth is 6000 years old and supports a museum that promotes these myths to children.
If he makes it to the final election, Gianforte will get the Evangelical Tea Party vote which is 10 percent of all voters and many Republican votes. But Independents and many Moderates to Liberal Republicans will vote for Steve Bullock because they don’t want an anti-science nutcase for Montana governor.
The “Very Conservative Evangelicals” dominate the tea party. Not all Protestant evangelicals are part of the “Very Conservative Evangelicals” faction of the Republican Party. And some non-evangelicals choose to be in this political faction.
“Very Conservative Evangelicals” constitute only 20 percent of the Republican Party. Meanwhile, the “Moderates to Liberals” faction of the Republican Party, who constitute 30 percent, oppose overtly religious candidates. And the “Somewhat Conservatives” faction, who constitute 40 percent, do not like radicals.
Greg Gianforte has positioned himself smack dab among the most overtly religious “Very Conservative Evangelicals.” The issue is not that he believes the Earth is 6000 years old. Belief is, or should be, personal. Most voters do not make a candidate’s religion an issue unless the candidate makes his religion an issue.
Greg Gianforte wears his belief on his shoulder. Voters will be well aware of what he represents. His religious belief contradicts science.
(See my article “How old is the Earth“)
He openly promotes the belief that the Earth is 6000 years old to school children. Voters will be rightfully concerned that his belief will cause him to make decisions as governor that favor those who agree with his religious belief.
But if Gianforte wins the primary, he will not beat Steve Bullock for governor. The demographics of Republican and Independent voters will reject Gianforte for governor.
Brad Johnson is also running for governor. Brad also served as Montana Secretary of State from 2005 to 2009. He now serves on the Public Service Commission. Brad is very experienced in Montana government and would make a good governor.