by Dr. Ed Berry
US Navy Admiral Samuel J. Locklear commands America’s defense of the Pacific Region, or about one-third of the planet. The non-scientific introduction to this post is here.
Admiral Locklear told the Boston Globe on March 9, 2013, that Climate Change is “is the biggest long-term security threat in the Pacific Region.”
Upon what basis does the Admiral draw his conclusion?
He told the Boston Globe that although he is not a scientist, he bases his conclusions on the following 5 “facts”:
- The ice is melting.
- Sea is getting higher.
- The island of Tarawa in Kiribati … is not going to exist anymore.
- Weather patterns are more severe. “We are on super typhoon 27 or 28 this year in the Western Pacific. The average is about 17.”
- About 280,000 people died in natural disasters in his Pacific area of responsibility from 2008 to 2012. “Now, they weren’t all climate change or weather-related, but a lot of them were.” (reported by Bloomberg.com)
Admiral Locklear made a strategic mistake unbefitting of a military commander. He said “I’m not a scientist,” but he attempted to justify his conclusion about climate change by stating what he thinks are facts. He should have said his conclusions are based upon the IPCC, the EPA, and the Obama administration rather than playing atmospheric scientist.
Incorrect data can lose wars. A military leader is supposed to get his data right before making a major decision. But Admiral Locklear has put his reputation on the line by playing scientist and has made his conclusions fair game for scientific critique. Let’s review his claims of “facts.”
1. Is the Ice Melting?
No. The Arctic Ocean was largely frozen in February 2013. Other observations include:
- Extensive Northern Hemisphere snow cover.
- Barents sea ice low.
- Bering sea ice high.
- Summit Station temperature -58F
- Worldwide sea ice is normal.
To calibrate your climate perception about arctic ice, read this report on “The Changing Arctic” from the Monthly Weather Review.
Also, here’s a relevant story from drroyspencer.com:
I have in my possession a copy of one of the most authoritative books ever written on Arctic sea ice, including a section on the warming of the Arctic. It is written by one of the pioneering researchers in Arctic sea ice, N.N Zubov, a Russian, who spent his career studying the Arctic region.
His observations of warming in the Arctic, which he described as not localized, but universal, are taken from his book entitled Arctic Ice. I have excerpted several pertinent passages, which I’m sure will convince you that warming of the Arctic can scarcely be denied:
Along with the fluctuations in ice abundance in each individual sea from year to year, in late years a most interesting phenomenon has been observed – a warming of the Arctic, as evidence by a gradual and universal decrease in ice abundance. The main evidence of this general warming of the Arctic are:
1. Receding of glaciers and “melting away” of islands….all the Greenland glaciers which descend into Northeast Bay and Disko Bay have been receding since approximately the beginning of the century. On Franz Joseph Land during recent years several islands have appeared as if broken in two. It turned out they had been connected up to that time by ice bridges. …I noted a great decrease in the size of (Jan Mayan and Spitzbergen) glaciers. Ahlman terms the rapid receding of the Spitzbergen glaciers “catastrophic”.
2. Rise of air temperature. (Over the last 20 years) the average temperature of the winter months has steadily increased…(in the last 10 years) in the whole Arctic sector from Greenland to Cape Chelyuskin there has not been a single (negative) anomaly of average annual and monthly winter temperatures, while the positive anomalies have been very high….
3. Rise in temperature of Atlantic water which enters the Arctic Basin…the temperature of surface water and of Gulf Stream water has steadily risen…
4. Decrease in ice abundance….15% to 20% (over 20 years)….In earlier times, polar ice often approached the shores of Iceland and interfered with fishing and navigation. For the past 25 years ice has not appeared in significant quantities.
5. Increase in speed of drift ice.
6. Change in cyclone routes. There is no doubt that the increase in air temperatures, increase in Atlantic water temperatures, intensification of ice drift, etc., are closely connected with an intensification of atmospheric circulation, and in particular with a change in cyclonic activity at high latitudes. Vize shows that Atlantic cyclones are now shifting considerably north, by several hundred km, from their courses in the period before the warming of the Arctic.
7. Biological signs of warming of the Arctic. …fish have ranged further and further to the north…cod in large quantities have appeared along the shores of Spitzbergen and Novaya Zemlya…also mackerel, dolphin where formerly were not found…during recent years fishing has gradually shifted into the Arctic waters, and this unquestionably must be ascribed in considerable degree to the warming of these waters….many heat-loving bottom organisms are now found in regions these organisms were not found (30 years ago). Knipovich says: “ In a matter of fifteen years…there occurred a change…such as is usually associated with long geological intervals”.
8. Ship navigation. …a number of ship voyages (were made) which could hardly have been accomplished in the preceding cold period.
Still more remarkable is the fact that the warming of the Arctic is not confined to any particular region.
I find these observations to be quite compelling evidence that warming of the Arctic is indeed unprecedented. Who would dare deny it? Clearly, we must do something about our carbon dioxide emissions!!
NOTE: Oh, silly me. This book was written in the late 1930′s. Nevermind.
2. Is the Sea Level Rising?
Not significantly. All the sea level alarm comes from climate models, not from data.
3. Is the Island of Tarawa Sinking?
No. The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition provides a good review of the Pacific sea level and specifically, Tarawa and Tuvalu in Kiribati.
Dr. Vincent Gray reports,
A tide gauge to measure sea level has been in existence at Tuvalu since 1977, run by the University of Hawaii It showed a negligible increase of only 0.07 mm per year over two decades It fell three millimeters between 1995 and 1999. The complete record can still be seen on John Daly’s website.
Michael Field writes,
“The historical record shows no visual evidence of any acceleration in sea level trends,” Australia’s National Tidal Facility (NTF) said in a statement about Tuvalu this week.
NTF, which has a network of tide gauges across the Pacific, says the Pacific shows no signs, anywhere, of rising.
Their tidal gauge has been on the capital atoll of Funafuti since 1993.
As of February 2002, “based on short term sea level rise analyses … the nearly nine years of data return show a rate plus 0.9 millimeters (0.03 inch) per year,” they say.
Mitchell says arguments can be made over the time length and type of scale but he is confident the data show Tuvalu is no more sinking than Australia is.
4. Are Severe Storms and Typhoons becoming more severe?
Not at all. This is data for the Pacific region.
Here is data for Pacific and Atlantic regions.
5. How many people died from 2008 to 2012 in the Pacific area due to climate change?
My guess: none. The global temperature may have risen about 0.5 to 0.8 Celsius in the last century and virtually no change has occurred in the last 16 years. This average temperature change is not enough to kill anyone. If the Admiral wants to claim data to support his conclusion, he must be specific.
Did Admiral Locklear even ask the correct questions about climate change? No.
Admiral Locklear is completely unaware of what is relevant in climate change science. For example, even if all of his claimed facts were true, nothing he said shows the changes were caused by human carbon dioxide emissions as opposed to natural climate changes.
This is the big mistake most of our brainwashed population makes. As a group, our population is completely illogical. They are no different now than the people who “believed” innocent ladies were witches who must be burned to stop the unexplained deaths in their communities. They are no different now than the Aztecs who believed that cutting out beating human hearts would bring rain needed to grow their crops.
The Aztecs “solution” was to cut out human hearts. The modern “solution” is to cut out carbon dioxide emissions. Future historians will put both these “solutions” in the category of mythology.
Review climatephysics.com to learn what is relevant to climate change science.
See especially The Skeptics Case in 12 minutes presented by Dr. David Evans.
The proper use of the scientific method overcomes such false thinking, but few people take the time to learn how to think. They want “sound bite solutions” to their problems and they accept “sound bite claims” however false as a basis for their views on climate change.
Why is the US Navy working with India and China on climate change?
The truth is China, India, Japan, and Russia do not believe human carbon dioxide emissions cause significant climate change. They are playing America into a losing position.
What are some facts about climate change?
Dr. Gordon Fulks is one of several atmospheric scientists who are challenging the EPA conclusions on climate change in the US Supreme Court. Download PDF here.
The lawsuit challenges EPA on 3 counts:
- Lack of physical understanding of atmospheric science as indicated by the missing hot spot (shown below).
- Lack of any significant temperature change in the last century.
- Invalid climate models that give incorrect projections.
There has been no significant global temperature change in last 16 years.
US winter temperatures have been trending downward significantly in the last decade.
The current warm period began about 1830, long before human carbon dioxide emissions began to rise.
There is no empirically validated theory that more carbon dioxide causes higher global average surface temperatures (GAST). On this basis, EPA does not have legal authority to restrictဠour carbon dioxide emissions.
Dr. Roy Spencer proposes these radiation data should be the focus of climate research.