by Kyoji Kimoto, email@example.com
Figure 1. IPCC’s AGW theory is a fictitious science with three erroneous components.
Figure 2. IPCC’s AGW theory has been built up with erroneous model studies.
1. Two defects in the basic papers of IPCC’s AGW theory
Figure 2 shows the history of model studies supporting IPCC’s claim that CS(WF) is 3K. If an intrinsic difficulty is found out in [Manabe et al, 1964/67], it will collapse instantly. This essay points out the following two defects of these papers.
Defect 1：Instability of computation results in RCM studies
One dimensional RCM is utilized in [Manabe et al, 1964/67] to obtain CS(NF) of 1.3K with fixed absolute humidity. CS(WF) is 2.4K when water vapor feedback is included with fixed relative humidity. The model is based on fixed lapse rate of 6.5K/km for 1xCO2 and 2xCO2.
Figure 3 shows diagrammatical expression of RCM studies with two parallel lines which means uniform warming in troposphere [Held et al., 2000]. However, computation results are unstable in this method. CSWF）varies from 0K to 4.8K with a minute change of lapse rate from 6.3K/km to 6.7K/km at 2xCO2.
Figure 3. Influence of lapse rate change on CS(WF) with CO2 doubling.
Defect2：Too large CO2 contribution in natural green house effect.
In the papers, Manabe et. al. obtained more than 10K for CO2 contribution in natural greenhouse effect of 33K [Manabe et al, 1964/67]. Since it is 3.3-6.7K from IR studies [Newell et al., 1979; Barrett, 2005], there is something wrong in their RCM calculations.
2. CS(NF) calculation based on pseudo Stefan-Boltzmann law
In 1976, Cess obtained -3.3(W/m2)/K for Planck feedback parameter Lambda0 utilizing the following procedure, which gives CS(NF) of 1.2K with radiative forcing of 4W/m2 for CO2 doubling[Cess.1976].
Cess’s procedure has been followed by many researchers including IPCC AR4 [Soden et al., 2006], which constitutes the basis of IPCC’s claim that CS(NF) is 1.2K. However, this procedure is apparently a mathematical error since Eeff is not a constant. Furthermore, the combination of Ts=288K and OLR=233W/m2 is not in accordance with Stefan-Boltzmann law [Kimoto, 2009].
3. SST will not increase as much as 2K with CO2 doubling.
(1) Hoyt, D.,2007: The collapse of arguments for high climate sensitivity
(2) Stevenson, R.E.,2000: Yes, the Ocean Has Warmed; No, It’s Not ‘Global Warming’
Figure 4. Neglect of physics law in SST problem with CO2 doubling.
４．CS(WF) based on the observational methods.
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