by Dr. Ed Berry
Last week, I published my article “Democrats keep lying about global warming” about Dr. Steve Running of the University of Montana and his unethical claim to have a Nobel Peace Prize.
Seems Dr. Eric Grimsrud has a problem with my article. He added two comments so far. Here I reply to his comments. My reply is of necessity too long for a comment. So I publish my reply as this new post.
You believe human carbon dioxide emissions will destroy planet Earth. Yet your quest to “prove” your case continues to fail. Here’s why.
You believe your key to proof is to personally denigrate all who claim your scientific conclusion is wrong.
Back in Climate Clash, you claimed Richard Lindzen was a pseudo scientist because you could not prove his published papers on climate were wrong.
You are preoccupied with the question of “Who is the smartest?” You believe the answer to this question determines who is correct about climate. It doesn’t.
You brag about your scientific papers because you believe the number of your published papers proves you are correct about climate. It doesn’t.
All your published papers were about a relatively narrow subject in chemistry. You have no demonstrated expertise outside this narrow field. You have no expertise in numerical models, meteorology or climate physics.
You brag about the subjects you studied. You believe this proves you are correct about climate. It doesn’t.
Your list shows you missed the most important course: the philosophy of science.
You do not follow the scientific method. In Climate Clash, you actually claimed we did not have time to use the scientific method because your imagined climate disaster was too imminent and dangerous. Time has proved you wrong.
You ignore that to prove your hypothesis you must begin with the null hypothesis: “Climate is normal until proven otherwise.”
If you can’t prove the null hypothesis is wrong then your climate hypothesis is wrong. You have not proved climate is abnormal. Nor has anyone else.
You explained above your simplistic “Al Gore” description of the greenhouse effect. You ignore important influences and feedbacks when you draw your simplistic conclusion from your simplistic hypothesis.
You ignore that people a lot smarter than you inserted your simplistic hypothesis into climate models. The climate models tried to “prove” human carbon dioxide causes dangerous global warming. They failed.
You ignore the key to science: If a prediction is wrong then your hypothesis is wrong. You ignore that climate models make serious incorrect predictions. Therefore, they are wrong.
We have had 37 years to test climate models. The 102 climate model average over-predicts temperature by a factor of 2.5. That’s like missing your basketball shot by 2.5 hoop diameters. If your prediction is wrong, your theory is wrong.
In passing, you seem to approve it’s OK for Steve Running and the U of Montana to claim he has Nobel Peace Prize, when he does not. Further, you seem to approve it’s OK to claim a Peace Prize proves one is qualified in science.
In other words, you approve lying if it helps you achieve your goal.
You claim your “bit of physics” explains the climate problem. You admit meteorology is very complicated. Well, so is atmospheric physics. Both physics and meteorology are central to climate science. That’s why you don’t understand it.
So here is your test.
You must show how the work of the following scientists are wrong. If you can’t show they are wrong, this will prove you are wrong. No name-calling here. Just science.
Soon, Connolly & Connolly published a 2015 peer-reviewed paper that plots temperature, total solar irradiance, and CO2 from 1880 to present. The plots show global temperature correlates with total solar irradiance but not with CO2. No correlation, no cause-effect.
Explain how their paper is wrong. Because if they are correct then you are wrong.
Chuck Wiese shows how your climate hypothesis is incorrect here. Chuck is a meteorologist and an expert on radiation transfer in the atmosphere. He understands the physics of climate far better than you do, Eric. You must show Wiese is wrong or you are wrong.
If you can’t understand Salby’s book or lectures then you should stop pretending you are an atmospheric scientist. Salby uses math and data to prove the rate of change of carbon dioxide is a function of temperature, and temperature is not a function of carbon dioxide. This proves our carbon dioxide does not cause climate change.
Please show where Salby made a mistake in his analysis. Because if he is right, then you are wrong.
David Evans is an expert mathematician. He found climate models contain serious errors. He concludes:
- A mistake in climate model architecture changes everything. Heat trapped by increasing carbon dioxide just reroutes to space from water vapor instead.
- The scare over carbon dioxide was just due to a simple modelling error. A whole category of feedbacks was omitted, which greatly exaggerated the calculated sensitivity to carbon dioxide.
- Externally-driven albedo involving the Sun is the main cause of warming, but it is omitted from all current climate models.
How do you like that? Your scare and alarmism over carbon dioxide was due to a simple modelling error.
Evans also found the sun’s behavior follows a mathematical “notch filter” pattern. You may not know what a notch filter is because you have no experience in advanced numerical mathematics.
Evan’s discovery shows the sun’s behavior (which is not included in the climate models) explains almost all of the recent global warming that you claim is due to human carbon dioxide. His discovery also predicts the 2020’s will be cooler than the 1980’s.
Unless you can show how David Evans is wrong, your game is over, Eric.
Since you cannot prove Soon, Wiese, Salby, and Evans wrong, your climate claims are wrong.
All your climate concern, all your name calling, all your false denigrations of others, all your futile attempts to prove you are a superior being, fail.
It’s time for you to admit your climate claims are wrong. It’s time for you to remove your book “Thoughts of a Scientist Citizen & Grandpa” from publication.
It’s time for you to tell your grandkids you lied to them. They don’t have to minimize their carbon footprints. They don’t have to stop fossil-fueled electric power plants. They don’t have to promote wind energy and drive electric cars. They can enjoy life. They can help improve America.
The planet has not warmed since they were born. Their future will be colder than the past.
Climate is a very complex subject. It has degrees of freedom that you have not learned about in chemistry. It is so complicated that no one can learn it all. Climate scientists must specialize. The specialists know much more about climate than you or I will ever know.
They are smarter than you are, Eric. And yes, data show I am smarter than you. I have more education and experience in climate physics and meteorology than you have. So get over it.
Who’s the smartest is not the issue. Unlike you, I do not claim my experience in climate physics and meteorology proves I am correct about climate. I accept being wrong when data prove me wrong.
You, on the other hand, are easily bamboozled.
Science is about the quality of the argument and nothing else.
Now you have your homework to do. Unless you can show Soon, Wiese, Salby, and Evans are wrong, then you are wrong about climate.